The US cutting Ukraine’s access to Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system would be a serious but not fatal blow to Kyiv’s war effort, experts believe.
Washington negotiators have reportedly warned Ukraine it could lose access to Starlink, which provides crucial internet connectivity to the war-torn country and its military, if Kyiv refuses to reach a deal with Washington on its critical minerals.
Donald Trump’s administration is pushing for Ukraine to supply $500bn [£397bn] of rare earth minerals in return for financially supporting its war effort.
Ukraine’s continued access to SpaceX-owned Starlink was brought up in discussions between US and Ukrainian officials, according to three sources Reuters spoke to.
It came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected an initial proposal from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the sources said.
The issue was reportedly raised again on Thursday during meetings between Keith Kellogg, the US special Ukraine envoy, and Zelensky.
Ukraine was told it faced the imminent shutoff of the service if it didn’t reach a deal, according to one source who said: “Ukraine runs on Starlink. They consider it their North Star.
“Losing Starlink… would be a massive blow.”
Katja Bego, a senior research fellow in international security at think tank Chatham House, said Ukraine would almost certainly have developed plans for fallback satellite systems after previous concerns over Musk blocking access.
Sweden and Germany were among the countries known to have provided Ukraine with alternative military comms systems, she added.
“It’s not that other systems can’t provide that, it will just not be as good as Starlink,” she told The i Paper.
“It would be very serious for Ukraine to lose access. A lot of their operations do rely on this system.
“But it’s not like they’ll go dark tomorrow and not have access to the same things that they used to, it will just be less less powerful. The nature of operations may have to adapt.”
The fast-moving Starlink systems are important in drone operations, which are now causing most Russian casualties, she said, and are much harder to jam than traditional satellites.
She questioned how the US could cut Starlink for Ukraine given Kyiv’s terminals were financed by European countries like Poland, and believes other nations will now be looking closely at their own dependence on the US.
“We really start to see that Silicon Valley tech fusion with the new White House new administration in action here to leverage that relationship they have,” she said.
“That is, of course, not something that’s just a problem for Ukraine. It’s problem for basically all European countries. I think it’s very serious.”
Other space-based intelligence from the US to Ukraine could also be at risk now, she warned.
On Saturday, Zelensky said he had had a “productive talk” with Sir Keir Starmer where the leaders “coordinated our military cooperation”. The Prime Minister insisted Kyiv must be fully involved in peace negotiations.
Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme, said Starlink had previously been a “critical enabler” for Ukraine on the battlefield.
“Just how important it was demonstrated by the occasions when Elon Musk either denied service or turned it off, leaving Ukrainian troops intensely vulnerable,” he told The i Paper.
Musk rushed thousands of Starlink terminals to Ukraine to replace communications services destroyed by Russia after its February 2022 invasion.
The Tesla billionaire later curtailed access as he became more critical of Kyiv’s handling of the war.
The Ukrainian government, which has described Starlink as the “blood of our entire communication infrastructure”, criticised Musk after learning he had reportedly sought to limit Starlink’s access for its forces near Russian-occupied Crimea.
Giles was not aware what effect the US cutting Starlink access now would have on Ukraine’s ability to fight on currently.
“But if the access to critical services like Starlink and to intelligence and support in whatever degree it’s provided by the United States to Ukraine is turned off instantly, then that will have a major impact,” he said.
“Because no doubt there are dependencies that are built into Ukraine’s system on the assumption that this assistance would continue.”
Washington threatening to cut off the satellite system to the US was another example of Washington now acting as an “adversary rather than a partner” under Trump, he added.
“Their demands are not that distinguishable from what Russia wants,” he said.
“Ukraine is likely to be faced with little alternative but to fight on without support when the prospect of fighting on is less disastrous than the terms that are being demanded by either Russia or the United States.”
Zelensky first put forward the idea of providing the US with some access to its mineral wealth.
According to reports, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to push the President into signing an agreement to give Washington control of 50 per cent of the country’s lithium deposits and its other valuable rare earths.
The White House insists the $500bn bill would be “payback” for previous US military assistance to Ukraine.
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