Unconditional support for Ukraine war slips among UK voters

UK voters are unsure whether British troops should be used as peacekeepers in the event of a deal to end the Ukraine war, as unconditional support for the war slips, an exclusive poll for The i Paper reveals.

A wide-ranging survey on UK attituded shows voters are divided over many aspects of the UK’s involvement with the conflict, and on Britain’s military spending.

Sir Keir Starmer still needs to prove the need for higher defence spending to 36 per cent of voters, the BMG polling found, who think he should prioritise public services such as welfare or education.

The Prime Minister this week announced plans to hike defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027, rising to 3 per cent by 2034, arguing that a “generational challenge requires a generational response” amid Donald Trump’s push for peace in Ukraine and signals of a US withdrawal from Europe.

But the BMG poll for The i Paper, taken on Tuesday – the day Starmer made the announcement – and Wednesday, found just a fifth (21 per cent) of voters said the Government should prioritise military spending, with more suggesting (36 per cent) other areas such as welfare and education, should be first in line for cash.

However, 28 per cent said the defence budget was about right meaning 49 per cent in total were happy with, or wanted more, military spending.

There was however a right-left split, with Conservative (40 per cent) and Reform (37 per cent) voters favouring higher military spending, with Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters leaning the other way.

It remains to be seen whether Starmer’s announcement and warnings that the UK must “fight for peace in Europe” could yet change voters minds in favour of more military spending.

The Prime Minister’s announcement also appeared designed to win over Trump before the pair’s talks in Washington DC on Thursday, which have been viewed as highly successful and could yet convince voters that the UK needed to spend more on defence.

But it came amid growing scepticism of support for Ukraine in its war against Russia, with more than a third of voters (35 per cent) saying the UK should no longer support Kyiv if it harms the British economy, up from 27 per cent two years ago, compared to 36 per cent who want Starmer to continue backing Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts to fight the Russian invasion regardless of its damage to the economy.

But 44 per cent believe that the UK is giving the right amount of support as things stand, and just under a fifth (18 per cent) believe the UK is doing too little, while a quarter, 25 per cent, think the UK is dong to much.

Reform voters were particularly more likely to prioritise the UK economy (51 per cent) over backing Ukraine (35 per cent).

Voters were also split on Starmer’s plan to put British peacekeeping troops on the ground in Ukraine to ensure any ceasefire deal holds, with 39 per cent backing the idea and 30 per cent against it.

However, a majority of voters (50 per cent) think US President Donald Trump’s approach to the war – including calls with Vladimir Putin allowing Russia back in from the diplomatic cold, and broadsides aimed at Zelensky – has been poor, with only a quarter (25 per cent) saying the President was doing a good job as he attempts to broker peace.

More voters also opposed the negotiations between the US and Russia (37 per cent) than support (26 per cent) them, amid controversy over the exclusion of Zelensky and European allies from the talks to date.

Forty-two per cent of voters think the UK should be more critical of the US negotiations, while 17 per cent think the UK should be more supportive of the US position.

Jack Curry, Pollster at BMG, said: “Public support for the UK helping Ukraine has declined significantly, with over a third now disagreeing the UK should support Ukraine despite any negative impacts on the UK economy. Sentiment around sending troops to support a peace arrangement is also split, although this does have more support than opposition.

“Starmer’s announcement of higher defence spending may have generated positive headlines, but the Government will need to prove the need for higher defence spending to the public.

“Despite changing geopolitical realities British voters would prefer higher spending on areas such as education over more military spending.

“Trump’s handling of the war in Ukraine is viewed as poor by a majority of the UK, especially compared with his predecessor Joe Biden, and other European leaders such as Emmanuel Macron. Almost half think the UK should be more critical of the US and more oppose the negotiations between the US and Russia than support it. It is clear Keir Starmer will need to walk a tightrope in ongoing dealings with the US.

“While there are cultural similarities between Conservative and Reform voters, Conservative voters show some of the highest opposition to the negotiations between Russia and the US, while Reform voters are the only group more likely to support negotiations than oppose them. This split is reflected in other Ukraine-related measures and could potentially pose problems as Reform try to cipher off more Conservative voters.”

:: BMG polled 1,586 adults in Great Britain on 25 and 26 February online. Results were weighted to reflect the profile of adults in Great Britain. BMG is a member of the British Polling Council.