We are only a month into Donald Trump’s second term as president and it’s already beginning to resemble Joe Biden’s first term in office. Seriously? How can Trump 2.0 be anything like Biden 1.0?
Admittedly Biden did not regard himself as a monarch and stick a crown on his head, as “King Trump” styled himself on social media this week. Nor did Biden suck up to dictators or set about destroying the federal government with a sledgehammer.
Still, there are some interesting parallels between the two presidents. This leaves open the satisfying possibility that Trump’s popularity will crater even faster than Biden’s did.
First, they both love to exaggerate their own success. Trump recently boasted in an interview that his advisers told him on the eve of the pandemic, “Sir, if George Washington and Abraham Lincoln got together and ran as president and vice-president, they couldn’t beat you.” He frequently compares himself favorably to the two greatest figures in American history.
Biden’s advisers used to pump out similar bilge about their boss being another Franklin D Roosevelt, with a dash of Lyndon B Johnson. Biden gathered a clutch of presidential historians at the White House after his first year in office, saying “I’m no FDR but,” practically begging them to contradict him.
Biden considered his $1trn infrastructure law to be comparable to FDR’s economic New Deal and LBJ’s Great Society welfare programs. Never mind that Biden spent $42bn of that money on expanding US internet access without connecting a single person.
Second, both Trump and Biden have dishonorably betrayed their allies. Unlike them, Americans are capable of feeling ashamed. Biden’s popularity never recovered from his abandonment of Afghanistan, eight months into his presidency. Americans know perfectly well that Russia invaded Ukraine, that Volodomyr Zelensky is a far better man than Vladimir Putin and that the Ukrainian leader is no “dictator”, no matter what guff Trump says to the contrary. Peace without honour is not “peace through strength”.
Trump’s standing in the polls is already slipping. Four polls this week showed his approval ratings within 44-47 per cent range, while a Washington Post-Ipsos poll showed that only 43 per cent of the country approved of his actions so far. Just one in three independents were supportive. Fifty-three percent disapproved of his handling of the federal government, most of which has been outsourced to Elon Musk and his chainsaw at Doge. On immigration, 50 per cent approved of Trump’s stance compared to 48 per cent who disapproved, a surprisingly narrow margin.
Notably, Americans are not confident of Trump’s grip on the economy. This is the big one. Only 45 per cent think he is handling the economy well, compared to 53 per cent who disagree. As ever, the important question for voters is – what is my president doing for me? Annexing Canada and Greenland doesn’t cut it.
With inflation trending upwards at 3 per cent, the threat of higher prices from tariffs and tens of thousands of government workers losing their jobs, the Trump presidency is losing its sheen.
Swingeing cuts, foreign betrayals – all these will matter little if the US economy begins to roar. If it doesn’t, Trump will be Biden Mark Two faster than he thinks. But here is something else the two presidents share: they both insist, “Only I can fix it”. At 78, a few months older than Biden was at the same stage of his presidency, Trump is determined to cling to power.
Far from hand-picking an heir in JD Vance, Trump thinks the vice-president is no match for his own charisma. Asked by Fox News if he regarded him as his successor, Trump bluntly replied, “No, but he’s very capable.”
Vance opened this week’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), the influential gathering of Republicans in Washington, by speaking about the vitality of the “masculine urge”. Believe me, his session was the low-energy, graveyard shift. All the excitement at CPAC was generally reserved for the evening with Musk, waving a literal chainsaw, topping the bill on Thursday and Trump set to close the conference tomorrow.
Trump prefers Musk to Vance because his South African birth prohibits him from becoming US president. If possible, Trump would rather reserve a third term for himself. Hosting a Black History Month event at the White House on Thursday, Trump asked, “Should I run again? You tell me,” and was gratified by the chant, “Four more years!”
Like Kamala Harris, Vance will have to suppress his ambition and watch and wait. Trump dreads being perceived as a lame duck and will not give him space. As with Biden, though, Father Time may have other plans.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting
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