One of Donald Trump‘s key election campaign promises was to end the war in Ukraine – and to end it fast.
Trump’s initial claim that he could accomplish the mammoth task in less than 24 hours was met with scepticism, but just four weeks into his presidency the progress towards a deal is undeniable.
Nonetheless, its conditions remain unclear and the long-term consequences of this swift, strong-arm negotiating style are hard to predict. There are concerns the deal may be unfavorable for Ukraine, as it appears to be driven more by the urgency to finalise it than by the fairness of its terms.
Yet, despite only being in office for a few weeks, Trump has managed to re-engage Russia in talks with Washington, push Ukraine to face the reality of making concessions, persuade EU leaders to boost defence spending, and even broker a deal with Kyiv over the country’s rare minerals, which Zelensky is expected to sign on Friday.
“I mean, that’s what I do. I do deals. My whole life is deals. That’s all I know, is deals. And I know when somebody wants to make it and when somebody doesn’t,” Trump said at a news conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday.
Although many were baffled and even outraged by Trump’s tactics and negotiating style in the early days of his administration, the growing alignment of world leaders with his demands demonstrates that his approach is proving effective.
“Trump – unlike most European leaders – has a strong mandate, a convincing ideology, and a plan,” said Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).
“He is also executing his foreign policy agenda at a speed which the sluggish bureaucracies of Europe cannot cope with,” Arnold writes in a commentary published this week.
But analysts fear that Trump’s relentless pursuit of a deal at any cost risks further emboldening Putin and ultimately increasing the threat to European security.
As European leaders learn to navigate a world where the US, under Trump, is becoming an increasingly unpredictable partner focused on its own interests, they are also taking actions they have long hesitated or postponed.
Sir Keir Starmer – who heads to Washington on Wednesday – announced on Tuesday that he plans to increase Britain’s military spending from 2.3 per cent of GDP to 2.5 per cent by 2027, with a further rise to 2.6 per cent the following year. This increase will be funded by reducing Britain’s foreign aid budget.
“This Government will begin the biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War,” Starmer said.
“This week when I meet President Trump, I will be clear: I want this relationship to go from strength to strength.”
Other European countries may soon follow Britain’s example and many have already said they understand the urgency to spend more.
According to EU estimates, last year EU countries spent an average of 1.9 per cent of their GDP on defence, totaling approximately €326bn ($334.5bn) – a 30 per cent increase compared to 2021.
Trump has suggested that Nato members need to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence – a figure that no member of the alliance, including the United States, currently meets.
By contrast, Russia currently spends 5.9 per cent of its GDP on defence, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
In light of Trump’s argument that Europe needs to take the lead in ensuring its own security, the UK and France are proposing a joint peacekeeping force to serve as a security guarantee after a deal with Ukraine and Russia is signed.
Once a ceasefire is reached, the “reassurance” force of 20,000 to 30,000 UK and French troops could be stationed around key Ukrainian infrastructure, including ports and nuclear power plants, although its mission is still not clearly defined.
The deployment of a security contingent with troops from Nato countries was, until recently, a major red line for the Kremlin. But on Monday, speaking alongside the French president, Trump revealed that he had asked Putin if he would agree to it and Putin had consented.
“I specifically asked him that question. He has no problem with it,” Trump said.
Security guarantees from allies has been a crucial demand from Kyiv in agreeing to a deal, as the war-torn nation braces for a future on Russia’s doorstep.
Meanwhile, Macron, who described his talks with Trump as “productive,” said France is ready to deploy a “nuclear shield” to help protect Europe from any potential Russian threats.
“European individual and collective defence and security deficiencies have robbed the continent of geopolitical power in a hardening world,” Arnold writes.
“The impotence of European powers on the world stage means they can be too easily shut out of conversations between the US, Russia and China,” he said.
European leaders recently experienced this when they were sidelined during discussions in Riyadh between the US and Russia about Ukraine and their own security.
Just days ago, the relationship between the US and Ukrainian presidents seemed to be heading in a downward spiral, after Zelensky said Trump was living in a “disinformation bubble” after claiming Ukraine started the war with Russia.
That triggered Trump’s fury, as he was already frustrated by Zelensky’s reluctance to agree to a deal that would allocate 50 per cent of Ukraine’s profits from rare earth minerals and other natural resources to the US.
Trump said Zelensky was a “dictator” and “a modestly successful comedian,” and called for his replacement.
Yet, on Tuesday, Ukraine announced it had reached an agreement with the US on natural resources and reconstruction, and that Zelensky would travel to Washington in the coming days.
A day earlier, Trump suggested the broader peace deal could be reached “within weeks”.
However, European and Ukrainian officials have voiced concerns that securing a peace deal at any cost could lead to unfavorable concessions from Ukraine. Experts have also warned that a bad deal could backfire and lead to a larger conflict.
For Trump, securing a deal at any cost appears to be the driving factor as it would represent a personal victory and reaffirm his position as a strong leader.
He has said though that both sides may need to make concessions.
“Everything with Trump is personal and transactional,” said Robert Hamilton, the head of Research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Programme.
“You’ve got to give him the appearance of a win.”
Trump’s staff have frequently praised his negotiating skills, but his approach comes at a cost – putting the US’s image and its reliability as an ally at risk.
“He’s the dealmaker in chief. He’s the commander-in-chief. And it’s only due to his strength that we’re even in this position,” national security adviser Mike Waltz told Fox Business on Sunday.
However, few expected the US to side with Russia, China and North Korea on a more lenient approach to a UN resolution marking the third anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The resolution, which described the war as a “conflict,” called for a swift end to the fighting but refrained from blaming Russia for the invasion.
Former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said the vote was “contrary to our long-standing support of democracy”.
The UN vote followed comments by Trump in previous days suggesting that Russia should be readmitted to the group of the seven leading liberal democratic economies and considered a potential trade partner.
Readmitting Russia to the group and easing sanctions would strengthen the Russian economy, allowing it to allocate more funds to defence.
Trump has also suggested that he may broker a deal with Moscow to secure access to Russia’s rare minerals.
“We are trying to do some economic development deals. They have a lot of things that we want,” Trump said, adding “we’d love to be able to do that if we could.”
Russia had repeatedly underscored its position that conceding Ukrainian territory it currently controls is a non-starter for any peace talks.
Moreover, Moscow is reportedly seeking to gain control of additional areas in the four eastern Ukrainian provinces it partially occupies.
However, speaking alongside Macron on Monday, Trump suggested there may be territorial concessions on both sides.
US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said a day earlier that “in any peace deal, each side is going to make concessions.”
Starmer has told Zelensky that Ukraine must be “at the heart of any negotiations” on a peace deal with Russia and that he will convey this message to Trump when he meets him.
The UK Prime Minister said during a phone call on Saturday that “safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty was essential to deter future aggression from Russia,” according to Downing Street.
“The UK and its people are among Ukraine’s biggest supporters, and we deeply appreciate this,” Zelensky said in a post on social media.
However, there was no US representation at an event in Kyiv marking the war’s third anniversary, hosted by Zelensky and attended by European leaders and Canada’s prime minister.
By reintegrating Russia from its status as a global pariah and pushing for a deal at any cost, Trump may take credit for halting the current fighting, but analysts argue he won’t stop Russia from pursuing its objectives and waging war against the Western order.
Putin wants Russia to be “a decider in the world,” said Russia expert and Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies, Jill Dougherty.
While Ukraine is important for the Russian leader, he is also looking at the bigger picture and Russia’s role in the world, she said.
As Macron was set to meet with Trump at the White House on Monday, Putin spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who reassured the Russian leader that their two countries “cannot be separated”.
It was the first conversation between the two strongmen since the US’s bizarre pivot towards Moscow.
Former KGB officer Putin has undeniably lived up to his reputation for being untrustworthy.
Trump’s eager embrace of negotiations – not just on Ukraine, but also on trade with the US and potential sanctions relief – exceeded the Kremlin’s expectations.
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