The rail routes a St Pancras upgrade could open up – if there were fewer hurdles

Queuing at St Pancras was never the most pleasant aspect of taking a Eurostar train from London to the continent. And then came Brexit and more long-winded border procedures.

But change is afoot. London St Pancras Highspeed (formally known as HS1) and Getlink, operators of the Channel Tunnel, are teaming up to smooth the cross-border, long distance rail travel process and works at St Pancras – to increase the passenger capacity from 1,800 passengers (the average processed per hour) to 5,000 passengers an hour – have been announced. That’s like going from two full Eurostar trains an hour to five full trains.

Once those works are done, passengers can look forward to a more pleasant experience at St Pancras – fewer queues, and perhaps even shorter check-in times, although London St Pancras Highspeed has been coy about the timeframe for completion of the works.

However, it was the words of Yann Leriche, chief executive of Getlink, that drew attention, implying the station upgrades were a step towards something greater. “We are keen to drive forward attractive opportunities for low-carbon mobility with a range of new destinations in Germany, Switzerland and France,” he said.

That means there is potential for trains go to Cologne, Frankfurt, Geneva, Marseille and Zurich, among other places.

The problem is that Getlink does not operate the trains: Eurostar does, and its fleet is already spread thin. Eurostar chief executive Gwendoline Cazenave was tight lipped about the operator’s plans to invest in new trains in an interview this month with Dutch daily Het Financieele Dagblad. Eurostar does not own a single train that is compatible with both Channel Tunnel and German safety systems and, likewise, has nothing to serve Zürich in Switzerland.

If Eurostar – the incumbent monopoly operator – is unwilling to solve this conundrum, might private rivals have a chance? Virgin Trains and Evolyn both have much-publicised plans to challenge Eurostar on routes from London through the Channel Tunnel, but neither of those companies own any trains, although Virgin says it is close to placing an order for a fleet of 12 units. With all the major train manufacturers having backlogs, it is going to be the end of the decade before anything ordered now will even run.

Were that not complex enough, the problems in stations in Continental Europe that could be served from London are not too dissimilar to the headaches at St Pancras. As passports must be checked, and bags scanned, before passengers board, you cannot run trains to London from any old platform at any station. Many of the destinations suggested [- Lyon, Marseille, Cologne, Frankfurt, Zürich – do not have any sort of terminal facilities resembling those at St Pancras, Paris Gare du Nord or Bruxelles Midi. The UK Government has always refused to look at a different way to solve this problem – to do passport checks on board moving trains, for example.

This makes the economics complicated for both Eurostar, and any potential rival. While we might like to dream of a London–Marseille or London–Cologne direct service, the cost of building and staffing terminals at new destinations is a strong disincentive. Even on the core London–Paris route, breaking even is a challenge, not least as Getlink levies a charge on operators of more than €20 for each passenger transiting the Channel Tunnel.

So, a smoother travel experience from London is now in sight, but do not hold your breath that a better terminal in St Pancras will open up direct routes to Germany or Switzerland or destinations further into France.

Jon Worth is an independent railway policy analyst based in Bourgogne, France. His research and advocacy work focuses on improving cross-border passenger railways in Europe.