When Sir Keir Starmer meets Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday, it will be the most high-stakes encounter between a prime minister and a US president for decades.
Starmer is not the first premier to have to deal with the mercurial Trump – Theresa May and Boris Johnson got there before him – but his meeting comes in a renewed, far more dangerous context.
During their one-on-one in Washington, Starmer will need to convince the President not to side with Russia over Ukraine, while trying not to alienate him with direct criticism – and also keeping the spotlight on other, less obviously pressing priorities.
The UK Government policy, of continuing to ramp up support to Ukraine so that the country does not lose further ground to Russia and is in a good position ahead of any future peace talks, is in stark contrast to the approach of the current US administration.
And Whitehall insiders are adamant that Starmer is not afraid to point that out at times – for example, last week the Prime Minister contradicted Trump’s claim that Kyiv’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky is a “dictator”, which sources said was a deliberate attempt to show he will sometimes stand up to Trump.
But Starmer’s inner circle emphasise that his main role is as a “bridge” between Europe and America – which, they argue, means he needs to be more restrained in openly criticising the White House administration than some EU leaders.
His main specific goal in the talks with Trump is likely to be securing a promise that Ukraine will be directly involved in the negotiations over a possible ceasefire.
Ed Arnold of defence think-tank Rusi said: “Starmer must appeal to Trump’s ego and emotions and make a strong case for what will happen to his reputation and standing if he gets played by Russia during negotiations.”
The UK also wants more details from the US of a possible “backstop” to any peace deal – European officials say privately that this would ideally mean American missiles hitting Russia directly if it breached the ceasefire.
The timing of the Prime Minister’s announcement that UK defence spending will rise by billions of pounds, just a day before he jets off to Washington, was no coincidence.
Starmer is keen to emphasise to Trump that Britain is doing its bit in shouldering more of the burden of European defence.
He will also seek to bind the US into Nato – having rejected the idea, floated by Emmanuel Macron, that the transatlantic alliance is no longer the best way to guarantee the security of this continent.
Rusi’s Arnold said: “Starmer should not be afraid to directly challenge the prevailing view of Nato in Trump world. He should emphasise the economic benefits of the alliance, and its ability to support the US against the ‘pacing challenge’ of China.”
When May first met Trump in 2017, she managed to extract from him a promise that he would honour the central Nato commitment of coming to the aid of another member under attack – Starmer would be delighted to match that achievement.
Government sources say that Britain’s best chance of escaping the punitive tariffs that Trump is planning to impose on many economic partners is making the argument that our trade is already pretty much balanced.
But there is another problem for Starmer: Trump now says that he regards VAT as a form of tariff, meaning that he is threatening to slap a “reciprocal” 20 per cent levy on imports from Britain.
The Prime Minister may not want to get into an argument about the details of economic theory but he will have to convince Trump that the US is not being treated unfairly.
This is where Starmer’s plan to play on the President’s love of the royal family, and his own British family roots, may be crucial. He wants Trump to see the UK as not just one partner among many, but a privileged ally.
Ben Ramanauskas, a former trade adviser to the British Government, also suggested a promise to weaken economic ties with Beijing as a way of winning over the President: “The Government should be prepared to show that it shares Trump’s concerns over China by promising to be less reliant on it.”
The deal to give up British sovereignty over the remote Chagos Islands is on hold pending fears over the future of the UK/US military base located there.
Senior members of the Trump administration have expressed scepticism about the agreement and even called for it to be cancelled – which suggests Starmer will not want to bring it up unprompted.
If the issue does end up on the agenda, the arguments the Prime Minister is likely to make were previewed earlier this month in an article for The i Paper by former Foreign Office chief Simon McDonald.
He said: “The deal ensures the base remains in Western hands for the next four generations at least.” Once again, the key argument is that staying united on this issue strengthens America’s hand in the struggle for supremacy over China.
Avoiding a tariff war is the Government’s immediate priority when it comes to transatlantic trade – but ministers would also like to start progress towards a full-blown free-trade agreement in future.
Whitehall sources say the UK would like to take the previous talks, which were frozen when former President Joe Biden came to power, revived in due course.
But in his initial conversations with Trump, the Prime Minister will seek to avoid having to make any commitments on tricky topics like accepting US agricultural standards or letting American firms bid for NHS contracts.
The UK has very much been a bystander in the Middle East so far, with the US taking the lead in pushing Israel to accept an ongoing ceasefire in its war with Gaza.
Starmer knows he can have little impact on Trump’s thinking about this issue, but is nonetheless keen to ensure that Israel remains under pressure to act within international humanitarian law.
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