The UK’s heat pump workforce must jump 13-fold in a decade to hit the Government’s net zero target of 1.6 million installations a year by 2035, a report has found.
This would require the workforce to shoot up from just under 10,000 now to the equivalent of 122,627 full-time workers within a decade – a target the UK is already behind on, according to the Heat Pump Association (HPA).
Hitting that target would need an average of 10,267 plumbing, electrical and other heat pump installation workers to to be trained each year until 2035. But last year, only 9,062 were trained – a shortfall of 12 per cent, or 1,205 roles a year.
In the shorter term, the heat pump workforce will need to quadruple to 41,143 “full time equivalent” workers by 2028 to hit the Government’s target of 600,000 installations for that year, seen as necessary to put the country on course to achieve “net zero” by 2050.
(The number of trained workers needs to exceed the number of full-time equivalent roles because most will spend much of their time installing gas boilers, as well as heat pumps, for at least the next ten years – while some roles will only be part time anyway and others will be unable to work due to factors such as illness, pregnancy and holiday).
Although the 2035 target currently looks out of reach, the UK is on course to hit its 2028 heat pump workforce target.
But there are even question marks over whether the 2028 training target can be hit. That’s because people who are considering training need to be confident that there will be a demand for their services and it is still unclear how strong the demand for heat pumps will be in the coming years.
HPA chief executive Charlotte Lee told The i Paper “urgent action” is needed to reduce the cost of electricity, which heat pumps run on, to ensure consumer demand is strong.
At the same time, the Government needs to quickly introduce building regulations for new homes to ensure they are fitted with heat pumps rather than gas boilers, she says.
Known as the Future Homes and Building Standard this forthcoming legislation aims to reduce a home’s carbon footprint by improving its energy efficiency – with gas boilers not complying with the environmental standard.
It is expected to be introduced this year although the final details have yet to be confirmed.
Ms Lee said: “The heat pump sector understands the scale of growth anticipated over the next decade and stands ready to deliver. By providing consistent and clear signals, the Government can unlock this potential, helping to ensure a sustainable, net-zero future for new and existing buildings.”
“The swift introduction of the Future Homes and Building Standard and urgent action to reduce the price of electricity relative to gas is imperative to unlock growth and confidence,” she said.
Cutting the price of electricity could make a significant difference because the upfront cost of a heat pump remains a major deterrent for many people – even after taking into consideration the £7,500 government grant being offered to most households, which will be offered until at least the end of 2027.
As such, reducing the running costs of a heat pump, which runs on electricity, would improve the financial case for getting one.
At the moment, electricity costs 3.9 times as much as gas to produce the same amount of energy in the UK – with electricity costing 24.50 pence per kilowatt hour (kWh) compared to 6.24 pence for gas, according to Ofgem.
The gap between electricity and gas prices is largely because most of the levies – such as to fund new solar and wind farms and to improve energy efficiency – sit on electricity rather than gas bills.
Electricity also has higher transmission and distribution costs – with high-voltage power lines, transformers and substations more expensive to build and maintain than gas pipelines, which can transport large quantities of gas over long distances relatively cheaply.
The high price of electricity makes potential heat pump installers less likely to take a training course over concerns that low consumer demand means their skills may not be needed. And it makes heat pump companies less willing to invest large amounts of money in the industry.
As such, the Government needs to send a clear signal to consumers and businesses that it will do what it can to bring down heat pump costs – by guaranteeing substantial grants for the long term as well as introducing policies to bring down the price of electricity, experts say.
“Meeting the Government’s ambition on heat pumps requires significant growth in Britain’s heat pump installer base. To unlock this, government can provide clarity by implementing ambitious heat pump policies whilst also lowering the costs of electricity through reforming green levies,” Jan Rosenow, who has advised Ofgem, the International Energy Agency and the European Commission, told The i Paper.
These levies help fund new solar and wind farms and grants to improve energy efficiency and three quarters of them sit on electricity bills at the moment, compared to just a quarter on gas bills.
Dr Rosenow and others say they could be moved from electricity charges and into a mixture of general taxation and gas bills, making heat pumps more attractive and increasing demand for them.
Running on electricity, heat pumps take heat from the air outside the building, bringing it inside and amplifying it to the required temperature – using the same technology as an air conditioner but in reverse.
But because most of the heat is transferred rather than generated, they are as much as three to five times more efficient than conventional heating technologies like gas central heating.
However, a lot of the efficiency benefit heat pumps have over gas heating is lost because electricity is much more expensive than gas – with the UK having the most expensive electricity in Europe, compared to its gas price.
The Government also needs to significantly increase the targets imposed on gas boiler companies to install a set number of heat pumps a year (the same companies often do both) as well as the fines for not meeting those targets, experts say.
Dubbed the ‘boiler tax’, the Clean Heat Market Mechanism is due to be introduced in April.
But critics such as Dr Rosenow say the fines and quotas are far too low for it to act as any incentive for companies to meet those targets.
Dr Richard Hauxwell-Baldwin, head of policy at The MCS Foundation, which certifies the quality of renewable energy across UK homes, said: “The Government must introduce long-term policies to make heat pumps the default in all new homes, and provide clarity to the market to support investment in the transition to ‘clean heat’.”
Heat pump sales shot up by 63 per cent to 98,469 in the UK last year, the HPA said last month.
But it warned that the Government’s target of 600,000 heat pump installations per year by 2028 – and 1.6 million by 2035 – remain challenging goals, in part due to the need to significantly increase the workforce, it said.
The increase in demand is thought to be the result of consumers wanting to keep their bills down in the longer term – as well as to help the environment and improve the energy ratings of their homes.
While the upfront costs of heat pumps are considerably higher than for gas boilers, their running costs are lower – while experts expect installation costs to come down considerably in the coming years with heat pumps expected to become cheaper to buy, more efficient and less expensive to install – as the fledgling industry grows.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: “We are working closely with industry to boost the number of heat pump installers with our Heat Training Grant.
“Nearly 5,500 people have been trained thanks to the scheme, and we are on track to support 6,000 training opportunities by April 2025.”
“The energy shocks of recent years have shown the urgent need to upgrade British homes and our Warm Homes Plan will make them cheaper and cleaner to run, rolling out upgrades from new insulation to solar and heat pumps,” the spokesperson added.
What are heat pumps?
Heat pumps are a low-carbon, alternative to way to heat your home. They work by absorbing heat from the environment and transferring it to a fluid, which is compressed to increase its temperature.
There are two main types of heat pump: an air-source heat pump and a ground-source heat pump.
An air-source heat pump extracts heat from the outside air, while a ground-source heat pump extracts heat from the ground using buried collectors, known as ground arrays. Unlike boilers, heat pumps don’t burn fuel to create heat, they transfer thermal energy from one place to another.
How much do they cost to install?
Air source heat pumps tend to cost between £14,000 and £19,000 to install. Ground source heat pumps cost between £28,000 and £34,000 to install, depending on how you install the pipes.
The exact price will depending on the brand, model and size of the heat pump, as well as the size of your property.
The average gas boiler cost for supply and installation is £3,000.
How long do they take to install?Air-source heat pumps may take a couple of days to install at home, while ground-source heat pumps take longer.
When installing, the drilling could take two days, while other parts of the installation could take four days. And while more expensive, ground-source heat pumps are considered to be more efficient than air-source alternatives.
What grants can you get to help with the cost?
For England and Wales, you can get a grant for up to £7,500 to replace a fossil fuel boiler with a heat pump under the Boiler Upgrade Scheme.
For Scotland, you can get a grant of up to £7,500 (£9,000 in rural properties) for energy efficient home improvements. You can also get a loan of up to £7,500 to install renewable heat in your home. There are no dedicated schemes in Northern Ireland. To find out if you’re eligible, use the Government website. If you are, contact a certified installer to get quotes and they will apply for the grant through the energy regulator, Ofgem.
Grace Gausden
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