Reform UK has edged in front of Labour in opinion polling, with voters telling an exclusive survey for The i Paper they favour Nigel Farage’s party over others.
The BMG Research poll had Reform on 27 per cent, ahead of Labour on 26 per cent, although the lead was within the survey’s margin for error.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, meanwhile, trailed on 22 per cent – the party’s lowest score since the general election in July 2024.
It puts more pressure on the beleaguered Tory leader, who has suffered a series of setbacks from underwhelming Prime Minister’s Questions performances to talk of her untimely downfall from within her own party.
The polling was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday, suggesting Sir Keir Starmer’s announcement that he would slash the foreign aid budget to fund higher defence spending – partly seen as an attempt to win back voters switching to Reform – had not yet seeped into the public consciousness.
Starmer’s decision was announced amid growing panic in Labour about the threat of Reform after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came second in German elections for the first time on Sunday, with warnings being relayed to Downing Street about the danger posed by Farage’s right-wing populists.
BMG’s survey is the latest in a series of opinion polls putting Reform UK ahead of its Parliamentary rivals.
This far away from the next general election, these results can only be interpreted so far, but they do show Farage’s insurgent party finding a growing sense of popularity with the electorate.
Farage’s reputation as a divisive leader also appeared to be improving, with the proportion of voters satisfied (32 per cent) with his performance nearly equal to those dissatisfied (33 per cent) for the first time.
His overall leader satisfaction rating of -1 was far above the Prime Minister on -30, although he saw a 2-point uptick in voters satisfied with his performance.
But Tory leader Badenoch was ahead with a rating of +1, although a fewer proportion of voters expressed a view on her performance than Farage or Starmer, suggesting she might be struggling to get noticed.
Reform’s improving performance appeared to be driven by concerns around immigration, on which the party was most trusted to deal with by 29 per cent of voters, compared to 18 per cent for Labour and 15 per cent for the Tories.
Farage’s party was also ahead on crime (22 per cent).
But on the most important issue for voters, the cost of living, Reform’s 18 per cent was behind Labour (21 per cent) and the Tories (19 per cent).
Oliver White, Pollster at BMG, said: “Reform’s momentum continues. Our poll shows Reform would receive the largest share of the vote if a general election were held tomorrow.
“Though Labour’s share of the vote is within margin of error, Reform’s lead over the Tories is now significant, and satisfaction with Nigel Farage as party leader also increases, with satisfaction and dissatisfaction now at almost equal levels.
“In comparison, Keir Starmer remains unpopular, and many are still yet to form an opinion of Kemi Badenoch.
“Concerns around immigration remain a driver of Reform UK success, but there are other policy areas where Reform are now just as trusted as Labour or the Conservatives, including around crime and the cost of living.”
BMG polled 1,586 adults in Great Britain on 25 and 26 February online. Results were weighted to reflect the profile of adults in Great Britain. BMG is a member of the British Polling Council.
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