On Thursday night in Hull, there were political fireworks – literally. As pyrotechnics flared on stage, Nigel Farage announced to 2,000 Reform UK supporters that the party’s candidate for the inaugural mayoralty of Hull and East Yorkshire – the former Olympic boxer and gold medallist Luke Campbell.
“I have been excited about this announcement for weeks,” said a Reform source. The crowd lapped it up. Increasingly Farage’s team are of the view that they will soon deal their own knockout blow to Westminster’s old two-party system.
While Keir Starmer can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend that his trip to the White House went off without a glitch (even if he lost a minister shortly after in protest at his decision to slash foreign aid to fund defence), the Labour leader’s domestic problems remain. On Friday, Reform activists were excitedly WhatsApping a new electoral calculus poll that suggeseted that if an election were held now, Reform UK would win the most votes and most seats (with 25.8 per cent of the vote to Labour’s 24.7 per cent).
It appears to fit a trend, with The i Paper’s latest BMG poll putting Reform in the lead on 27 per cent with Labour one point behind.
‘There’s a feeling Reform are almost unstoppable now,” complains one downbeat Tory. That is a mood reflected in Reform HQ these days, with aides taking up residence in Millbank Tower, the same office from which Tony Blair and his team plotted their election victories.
These days it is a rather different vibe – the screens in the Reform office play their preferred news channel – GB News.
Just as Conservative Campaign Headquarters struggles with a drop in funds and demotivated aides complain about being short-staffed, overworked and underpaid, Reform are expanding its operations.
So, is this really an unstoppable march to electoral success – or could Farage’s path to No 10 yet be thwarted? While new Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf – known to work 14 hour days – is professionalising the party, there are still murmurs of discontent.
The first is in the parliamentary party. Both Starmer and Kemi Badenoch know all too well how difficult it can be to unite their MPs – members from the same party often have opposing views and some will act out of self-interest rather than what is best collectively.
Given there are only five Reform MPs at present this ought to be less of an issue for Farage. Yet indications of unhappiness are growing. How much do Lee Anderson, a former Labour MP, and Rupert Lowe, a Thatcherite, have in common beyond immigration?
Earlier this month, the party held an energy announcement which included a “windfall tax on renewable generated power” and a “ban on Battery Energy Storage Systems”. These raised eyebrows. Not least because Lowe owns a battery business. Was it an attempt to take him down a peg or two? That’s one aide’s take at least.
It has not gone unnoticed that the MP for Great Yarmouth is more of a lone rider than the rest of the gang. “Rupert likes to forge his own path,” says a party figure. When Elon Musk turned on Farage in January – suggesting the leader was not fit for the role after he failed to back Stepen Yaxley-Lennon – aka Tommy Robinson – on the grooming gangs scandal, Lowe’s tweets were seen as less supportive than the rest of his colleagues.
Farage previously told me: “I’m sure he wouldn’t want this job if you paid him 10 million dollars.”
Yet Lowe is taking on a role when it comes to fleshing out the thinking behind the Reform message – he will be a speaker for a “remaking conservatism” event for Thatcher’s favourite true-blue think tank, the Centre for Policy Studies.
Then there is the old guard. Those who are closer to the Musk view that Farage has become – whisper it – a little mainstream? Has he moved to the left? They want the insurgent party to keep being insurgent as it tries to hoover up Labour and Tory votes – though that gets more difficult as they have to unveil positions.
What’s more, if Reform want to enter government, they could have to compromise. For all the celebrations about recent polls, the race is so tight that no party is currently on course for a majority. It’s why there is increasing talk of a Reform/Tory electoral pact.
The view of Reform figures is that any pact before the election would be politically toxic. How could the insurgent suddenly work alongside the party they have been throwing rocks at?
What’s more, the idea of campaigning less in certain seats or fielding a paper candidate doesn’t really work with Reform. ‘The problem is Reform is a protest party so all you need is the Reform name on the ballot and a lot of my constituents would vote for that candidate,’ says a Tory MP. “It’s not about the individual, it’s the anti-politics mood.”
A more realistic prospect is the idea that the two sides could have to hold talks after the result – if neither wins an outright majority. “The likely scenario is that between us and the Tories there are enough seats to stop Labour,” says a figure with close links to Reform.
“At that point you have to conlude the lesser evil is working with the Tories to stop Labour.”
That’s the current thinking among some figures in the two parties – use the time now to forge ties so those conversations can take place much later down the line if needed.
It’s a long way away – but any power-sharing deal could push Reform’s inherent tensions to breaking point.
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