Lewis Hamilton's fairytale Ferrari title dream could be on with defending champion Max Verstappen and his team on the ropes.
But the seven-time champion, 40, faces a Battle of Britain after Lando Norris showed in pre-season testing why he is the bookies' favourite heading into the new season. And a third Englishman in George Russell might even be dreaming of title glory with Mercedes quietly happy with what they saw over three days on track in Bahrain this week.
While their main rivals are pleased with their progress, Red Bull are fearing the worst. Straight-shooter Verstappen, 27, is the four-time champion gunning for five in a row this year - but may not have the ammunition.
After the Dutchman spent the whole final day wrestling with a car that didn't look at all compliant, downcast technical director Pierre Wache admitted: "It was not as smooth a test as we expected." The Frenchman, now leading Red Bull's design team after legend Adrian Newey left for Aston Martin, insists they are heading in the right direction but said their performance jump was "not as big as we expected".
Red Bull lost their way last season as McLaren and Ferrari roared past in terms of car competitiveness. But Verstappen had already won seven of the first 10 races to create a buffer which helped him hold off Norris, 25, to join Sebastian Vettel and Alain Prost as a four-time champion.
The Dutchman has Michael Schumacher's record of five-in-a-row in his sights this term but admitted he is unlikely to enjoy another lightning start when the lights go out in Melbourne two weeks from today. "I do not expect us to be the fastest at all," he said bluntly, later adding that there is "work to do" for his colleagues to push him into the title conversation.
Hamilton used those same three words to describe his Ferrari team's task over the next 14 days. The Italians enjoyed two smooth days in Bahrain but the third was interrupted by a technical issue which limited the Brit's track time and meant he, like Verstappen, heads to Australia without having completed a race simulation in his new car.
Ferrari dismissed it as nothing more than "an anomaly in the telemetry", but it was serious enough to keep Hamilton in the garage and while his rivals made the most of precious track time. At McLaren, though boss Andrea Stella did his best to play it down, Norris showed by far the best long run pace of anyone to underline why most think he will be the man to beat in Melbourne and beyond.
And Mercedes may have finally resolved their inconsistencies after declaring they had made "good steps" over the winter. But the mood is likely to be much more sour at Aston Martin, who seem to have created a more compliant car but also one which, put simply, lacks pace.
It didn't help the Silverstone-based squad that both Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll were unwell this week, the latter even having to be replaced by his team-mate for the final hour of Friday's running because he had reached the limit his body could put up with.
But it seems Newey, who starts work as managing technical partner on Monday, will be kept very busy from the moment he starts to try to get Aston up to speed. They may well have fallen behind multiple midfield teams in the pecking order, particularly Williams who were the surprise package of testing.
Carlos Sainz set the quickest lap time of anyone over the three days and while that is certainly not an indication that they will be the fastest team on track in Melbourne, it was clear that the car was working well for both the Spaniard and Alex Albon. Have Williams emerged as the ones to beat in the midfield?
Back at the front, though, those predictions of a four-team title fight might come true after all. But only if Red Bull can get their act together, otherwise even Verstappen looks likely to struggle to drag them into championship contention.
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