Sir Keir Starmer must learn the lessons from the German election after voters kicked out the centre-left incumbent party after just one term, Labour MPs and pollsters have warned.
Germany’s ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) was voted out in the country’s general election on Sunday, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) making significant gains to come second. The centre-right CDU/CSU topped the poll.
Although there are considerable policy differences between Reform UK and the AfD – which has in the past been linked with extremism in Germany – the fact that the party most vocal on immigration has made gains has worried some Labour MPs.
Labour figures are now warning Downing Street must take heed of the election result, highlighting the growing threat that is posed by Nigel Farage‘s right-wing grouping.
It comes despite Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice publicly distancing himself from the AfD, telling The i Paper: “We see ourselves as a UK-centric, common-sense party that’s got solutions for the UK.”
One Labour MP said that the result in Germany “illustrated the fact that we are slipping towards this kind of result in four years’ time”.
The backbencher pointed to the “strong parallels” between the political situation in Germany and the UK. The SPD won the 2021 general election following the collapse in support for the centre-right Christian Democrat Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) – but “without a huge groundswell of support from voters”.
The MP added: “We need to pivot to see off the threat of Reform now rather than doing it in a panic in three years’ time. That means delivering on getting net migration numbers down and increasing spending on public services, including defence and if that means breaking the fiscal rules then so be it.”
Another Labour MP echoed the comments, adding that the rise of the right across Europe meant Labour needed to change tack.
“The problem is too many people in the party still hold on to the soft liberal left assumption within the Labour Party, but we need to adapt to change far more quickly,” the source said.
On Monday, Tice rejected comparisons between the AfD and Reform UK. Asked if the two parties are ideologically aligned, he replied: “No, absolutely not.”
According to figures from Germany, 38 per cent of voters defined as “working class” voted in favour of the AfD. The number voters aged 18 to 24 who backed the party tripled from 2021.
A separate Labour MP warned that the Trumpian, demagogue brand of politics held an appeal with “some young men – because it’s simplistic and macho”.
The first real test of Labour’s resolve against Reform is likely to come at a potential Runcorn and Helsby by-election after the incumbent MP, Mike Amesbury, was sentenced to 10 weeks in jail for punching a man.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said the Prime Minister would be “closely watching the German election results, seeing a reasonably technocratic centre-left leader get beaten after one term.
“Starmer’s own prospects, albeit some way out from an election, haven’t looked rosy since the summer, and he’ll need to reverse his own fortunes to avoid the same fate. Starmer’s saving graces may come in the form of a Conservative Party that can’t get its act together, and an electoral system more heavily stacked against insurgent parties such as Reform UK than Germany’s.
“But having come to power without overwhelming enthusiasm – or indeed an overwhelming popular mandate – for Labour, clinging onto power again in four years time because they’re the least worst option will do nothing to fix the public’s low perception of the British political system.”
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