Sir Keir Starmer will next week hold the most important meeting of his premiership so far when he has talks with Donald Trump in Washington DC.
At stake is the future of the Ukraine war, and by implication wider European security.
Already the Prime Minister’s aim to act as a “bridge” between the President and Europe has been tested, after he was forced to publicly disagree with Trump’s characterisation of Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator”.
It means Starmer faces a high-wire act of refuting Trump’s repetition of Kremlin propaganda while also trying to convince the President to take into account the needs of both Ukraine and Europe as he tries to broker peace with Vladimir Putin.
Crunch talks between Trump and the Russian President could take place very soon after Starmer’s visit, meaning the visits to Washington of the Prime Minister and, earlier in the week in a blow for the UK, Emmanuel Macron; could prove crucial in determining whether Ukraine and Europe’s interest are neglected in any proposed peace deal.
In a reflection of the grave importance of the coming days, Starmer spent four hours last week locked in meetings with defence chiefs about the next steps on Ukraine and what they need to see from the strategic defence review, according to officials.
Early next week, he is expected to hold high-level talks with National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell and Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Whitehall to prepare a strategy for the Trump summit.
The UK’s overarching approach to dealing with Trump is to try and “take the heat out” of the debate by “injecting a sense of calm”, a Whitehall source said.
But the UK is also trying to show that it “understands” Trump’s views on European defence spending and self-reliance, and will not be reacting to all of the President’s comments.
Starmer is likely to make the point in talks with Trump that if the UK is “policing the peace” in Ukraine, for example by putting British troops on the ground as proposed by the Prime Minister, it should have a voice in negotiations to get there.
Overall, the UK Government is satisfied that the US remains its ally on Ukraine, with Marco Rubio briefing the UK, France, Germany and Italy on US-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia and making clear there were no agreements made and they were “talks about talks”, as well as signing up to a G7 foreign ministers’ statement calling for “durable peace and a strong and prosperous Ukraine”.
But after Trump caused shockwaves and consternation among allies after blaming Ukraine for the war, which began with a Russian invasion in 2022, some senior Labour figures want Starmer to show his mettle, and believe that doing so could work to his political advantage and help turn round dire personal poll ratings.
As a YouGov poll this week revealed 48 per cent of Britons believed it was more important for the Government to support Ukraine than maintain good US relations, compared to 20 per cent who said the opposite, some senior Labour figures suggested a “Love Actually moment” could help Starmer.
In the 2003 film, a fresh-faced prime minister played by Hugh Grant tells Billy Bob Thornton’s US president that their relationship has become “bad”, and that he is prepared to be “much stronger” in the face of American “bullying”.
The prospect of Starmer uttering anything similar may be mere fantasy, but some believe he has an opportunity to stand up for British and Ukrainian interests while maintaining diplomatic ties with Trump.
One minister said: “If Keir is seen as strong and standing up for UK security then that’s good.
“Nothing else is as important, it’s the first duty of any government.
“I’m thinking Keir should channel the PM’s speech from Love Actually.
“People are attracted to strength.”
A second minister, meanwhile, said Starmer has the chance to be Europe’s figurehead in the crisis: “Who else is there with a stable majority with a long time left in office?
“This is a moment for leadership.”
A senior Labour MP said Starmer was “absolutely right to stand up to Trump’s absolutely abhorrent rhetoric about Zelensky” this week.
“The UK has stood firm with Ukraine since the beginning, and to concede even an inch now would be an immense betrayal of the Ukrainian people.
“I don’t think this is a time to worry about our rapport with Trump.
“We should be concerned about doing the right thing. The right thing is showing unwavering support for Ukraine against Russia.”
Some also predict a political benefit for Starmer.
The minister who called on the PM to channel Love Actually said being firm about British interests could help Starmer fend off a challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform.
“On social media Reform fans have been critical of spending money on Ukraine for months so they will be celebrating Trump’s moves.
“But, I think many others won’t see it that way.
“Part of Reform’s appeal is nationalism and arguably being seen to be following Trump while risking security in Europe undermines this.”
A Labour insider said standing with Ukraine is “massively popular” across the political spectrum, was the “right thing to do” as well as “patriotic” and speaking to voters who care about national security while also creating helpful “clear water with Trump – it’s ideal”.
Some pollsters also believe Starmer could get a boost.
Luke Tryl, director of the More In Common think-tank said Starmer’s talks in Washington offer “an opportunity for him to look strong and pragmatic”.
“Brits overwhelmingly back Ukraine, we don’t have the polarisation we’ve seen elsewhere and the Reform softer stance so far has been out of line with the public.
“People don’t expect a Love Actually moment, but they do want us to make sure Ukraine doesn’t get screwed
“So I think it’s a chance to reset voters’ conceptions of him.
“The risk if it all turns sour is given Ukraine is basically the only thing Brits are proud of
And if he gets a bad deal it contributes to our national gloom here at home.”
But others think that while Starmer may get a boost in visibility, ultimately it is bread and butter domestic issues like the economy that will determine the Prime Minister’s popularity, and jeopardising the US relationship could therefore harm him.
Anthony Wells, head of European political and social research at YouGov UK, said: “If you ask people whether he should stand up [to Trump], people give a morally right answer.
“But also if we ask that Britain has a strong relationship with the US, people say yes.
“He may, if one imagines him standing up and doing the whole Love Actually scene, I imagine it would boost his short-term popularity ratings.
“But if we suddenly ended up with lots of tariffs against us, I’m not sure it will be seen quite so positively.”
Wells added: “Foreign affairs is mostly quite a secondary issue that always pales in comparison to the economy or the NHS and so on, primarily people build their views on domestic issues.
“From that point of view I wouldn’t expect it to have a huge impact unless he does something incredibly embarrassing or incredibly brave and different or mould-breaking, neither of which I expect based on his character and performance so far.”
Starmer is also being cautioned by seasoned diplomats not to publicly call out Trump.
One Conservative ex-foreign secretary said Starmer should air disagreements with Trump “behind closed doors” rather than in public, adding: “We lose our leverage otherwise.”
An EU source agreed, endorsing Starmer’s positioning to act as a “bridge” to the US: “I’m not sure taking him on publicly is the right idea. We need interlocutors, wherever they come from, and that is why the Prime Minister’s trip to Washington is so important and we all wish him well.”
It is this role, as someone who can bridge the divides between the US and EU, that represents a sweet spot for Starmer.
One European diplomatic source said: “We believe it’s good that Starmer is going to see Trump and convey the European perspective, especially on Ukraine.”
British ministers are also pushing other European allies to do more, and in doing so echoing Trump’s position, even though public opinion in some countries is more sceptical about the need to back Kyiv with military force.
At a recent meeting with his European counterparts, Defence Secretary John Healey is understood to have given them the message: “Go back to your countries and speak to your publics about the need to spend more on defence.”
Others are however more sceptical, with a Tory former No 10 and Foreign Office adviser saying Starmer attempting to act as a bridge is “futile”: “I don’t think Trump is interested in bridges, and the EU does no favours for things that aren’t written down in treaties or legal documents”.
Another EU source also doubts that Starmer can be the bridge to Trump, suggesting the PM and President are “not natural bedfellows” and suggesting the likes of Italy’s Giorgia Meloni may better play that role: “I don’t think people believe he will be the right conduit to Trump, he is the centre-left leader of the Labour Party who has spoken quite strongly against Trump in the past as well as his Cabinet ministers.”
A Labour MP said they thought it was inevitable that at some point Trump would lash out at the UK Government as he did during his first presidency, for example when he attacked Theresa May after she criticised him for sharing far-right videos on social media.
The MP said: “We are going to have to take some blows”.
However, they said that Starmer’s stolid disposition might help in dealing with the tempestuous US President. “Keir’s character is quite a good one,” he said. “He’s not going to flip out.”
The backbencher said Labour had to focus on “managing the situation” with Trump. “It’s important that we have our own agenda.”
A Labour MP on the left added: “The way Keir Starmer approaches this and deals with Trump could be a moment to define him, but I think if he leaves the US with anything more than a piece of paper then I will be surprised.
“Our relationship with the US has fundamentally changed. Given what we have heard from Trump, if No 10 think we can get any serious assurances from him they are delusional.”
Whatever Starmer and Trump say in Washington, it will be the President’s subsequent talks with Putin and the actions they result in that will determine whether the Prime Minister’s visit has been a success.
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