A target by the UK’s climate change watchdog for half of all homes to have a heat pump by 2040 won’t be achieved without more action from the Government, engineers and trade bodies have warned.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has set out a series of new targets – historically accepted by ministers – including a recommendation that 50 per cent of homes are using heat pumps within 15 years.
Energy experts said replacing fossil fuel-guzzling gas boilers with the more eco-friendly heating systems in millions of homes across Britain was “challenging but necessary”.
However, the Plumbing and Heating Federation, the body representing installing engineers, said the Climate Change Committee (CCC)’s 2040 target as “detached from reality”.
Only 1 per cent of UK homes are currently heated by a heat pump. The group warned that without a major expansion in the trained engineers to install them, the 50 per cent target would amount to “empty ambitions”.
Mike Sammon, a heat pump installer in Merseyside, told The i Paper that he supported the CCC’s 2040 target – calling the desired transition a “natural progression to better technology”.
But he warned Labour ministers they would have to take more action to encourage homeowners to invest in heat pumps, which remain more expensive to install than a gas boiler.
“Labour should follow the CCC target – but it will be very difficult. I don’t think it will happen unless there is action to bring down upfront costs,” said Sammon, who runs a small heat pump installation firm.
“We can’t just say, ‘We’ll get there with current policies’. If that’s the case, we’ll miss the target by miles. They need to look at more ways to encourage people.”
The Government currently offering grants of £7,500 to help people have a heat pump installed. He said the cost of installing the system, which can require new radiators, can amount to £5,000 to £10,000 over and above the Government subsidy.
It is considerably more than the £2,500 to £3,000 needed for a replacement boiler, according to Sammon.
Calling the installation cost the “big blocker” to higher uptake, the experienced engineer urged Labour to increase the £7,500 subsidy. “I think they should look at increasing the grant to £10,000, and offering interest-free loans.”
Sammon also said green levies should be removed from electricity bills to bring down prices. He said the so-called “spark gap” – the imbalance between electricity and gas prices – remained another barrier to greater growth in the heat pump market.
The engineer said small firms like his own faced too much paperwork to get certified in heat pump installation, calling on Government to help reduce the costs and bureaucracy involved.
“It can be quite expensive, costing a few thousand pounds to be certificated. Some small engineers say, ‘It’s not worth it’. We need to address that,” said Sammon.
“We can’t rely on big companies to do this transition,” he added. “There need to be smaller heat pump installers in every town and city. We can’t let the small companies get left behind.”
Fiona Hodgson, chief executive of the Plumbing and Heating Federation, called on the Government to invest more in training programmes.
“Without serious investment in skills training and workforce expansion, the UK will fail to meet its heat pump targets,” she said.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will reject calls from the CCC to ban the sale of new gas boilers by 2035, The i Paper understands.
The previous Conservative government had set out plans to ban gas boilers by 2035 in a bid to the boost transition to heat pumps, before it watered down the policy.
Miliband told MPs in January that he was “wary” of enforcing any ban by any particular date “when we cannot guarantee that heat pumps will be cheaper for people”.
Max Waddingham, operations director at Good Energy, a Wiltshire-based renewable energy company which installs heat pumps, said he is optimistic about the CCC’s new 2040 target.
“I think with developments in the technology, it is feasible to get there by 2040. I think it’s doable – but not if we don’t take more steps to make it happen,” he said.
“The Government needs to give clear direction to the market. The uncertainty around the phase-out of gas boilers hasn’t helped,” said Waddingham.
“I don’t think it needs to be a complete ban – there will be exemptions needed for vulnerable people. We don’t need to force it down people’s throats. But a firm target with a clear date far enough in the future for a phase-out help.”
There were just under 100,000 heat pumps installed in the UK in 2024. The CCC said heat pump installations should increase to 450,000 a year by 2030, before rising again to 1.5 million a year by 2035.
Despite the huge growth required in decade ahead, the climate watchdog said it was a rate of increase in line with European countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands.
Professor Robert Gross, director of the UK Energy Research Centre, said the 2040 target was “challenging but achievable”.
He warned that it may have to achieved despite the £7,500 grant being removed at some stage by the Government. “You could perhaps to taper it off as a general subsidy, and keep targeting some support for those on low incomes,” said Professor Gross.
Research shared with The i Paper in January showed that heat pumps may become cheaper than gas boilers to install, maintain and run within the next five years, as both technology and take up improves.
Lead researcher, Dr Jan Rosenow, of Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, said the 2040 target was “difficult – but it’s achievable and it’s necessary”.
Miliband said ministers would consider the recommendations by the CCC. The Government has to decide on the level of emission cuts it will commit to for the period 2038 to 2042, and put it to a vote in Parliament by the end of June next year.
“We owe it to current generations to seize the opportunities for energy security and lower bills, and we owe it to future generations to tackle the existential climate crisis,” said the Energy Secretary.
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