A multinational “coalition of the willing” air force could police Ukraine’s skies if US jets aren’t part of any peacekeeping force, according to a former RAF commander.
Retired Air Marshal Greg Bagwell said another option for Western allies was to turn Ukraine’s forces into a formidable “backstop” by rearming Kyiv after a ceasefire to deter Russia.
On Sunday, Sir Keir Starmer and European leaders will hold a summit in London knowing US troops are unlikely to be part of any post-war ground mission.
Donald Trump also stopped short of publicly guaranteeing US airpower in Ukraine when he met the Prime Minister this week and said British troops “can take care of themselves”.
During their White House meeting, Starmer reportedly pressed Trump to guarantee aerial intelligence surveillance and last resort air cover.
Bagwell, who policed no-fly zones in Iraq and commanded RAF jets in multinational operations in Syria and Libya, said the UN could run any peacekeeping mission if Nato didn’t, with non-European powers like Australia possibly forming part of a broader Western alliance.
He told The i Paper: “You can just make it a coalition of the willing. If there is a broad consensus and everyone’s prepared to do their bit, then all someone’s got to do now is sit down with a spreadsheet and go, ‘We need 10 of them, two of them, four of them – who’s going to pick what slots?’
“You can put more in if you can have a rest period. You can put a squadron’s worth in now, and as long as someone’s prepared to put a squadron’s worth in a year later then you can rest that squadron.
“We’ve held six to 12 aeroplanes overseas for years, whether it be in Cyprus or the Baltics. Those types of small numbers are sustainable for the long term.”
However, he added scenarios that did not involve the US were “higher risk” with “potentially higher costs”.
“Are we seriously suggesting that in the event of a Russian incursion the UK and France go to war with Russia on the Ukrainian border? That’s the trickier scenario to play out,” he added.
Starmer has warned that Vladimir Putin could invade Ukraine again unless the US provides security guarantees.
And while Trump insists US workers in Ukraine as part of its proposed rare mineral deal with Kyiv would act as a deterrent to Russia, their presence risked the conflict escalating.
“If Russia was to incur into the agreed border and cross the line and injure American mineral workers or British or French troops, the idea that America would then stay out of that is pretty hard to fathom,” Bagwell added.
A significant number of operations, particularly surveillance missions, could be flown from other European nations rather than from bases in Ukraine, he believes.
The RAF was more likely to use some of its 121 Typhoons rather than any of the 32 F-35B Lightning II jets due to their longer flying time and their use by Nato allies like Germany, Spain and Italy, he added.
“If you’re putting half a dozen of one and half a dozen of another from France or whatever, that they’ll be able to operate instantly together. So the air domain is pretty well joined up,” he said.
RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft would also be deployed if Donald Trump rejects UK calls for the US to commit spy planes and satellite systems.
The RAF has three Rivet Joint surveillance jets – compared to the US’s 17 – which are based at RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire.
Nato could also possibly send surveillance planes from its E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control base in Geilenkirchen, Germany.
But Bagwell said questions remained about how to ensure any Western air force is a deterrent to the Russians if the US are not involved.
In September 2022, a Russian SU-27 fighter jet tried to shoot down one of the RAF surveillance planes with a crew of up to 30 after believing he had permission to fire.
A Russian pilot fired an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on its target.
“To what extent does that play the role of, if Russia comes, we’re going to attack you?” Bagwell said of any peacekeeping operation.
“You could argue that Ukraine could be the backstop. And if Ukraine is rearmed and rested, then you could have quite a significant Ukrainian army and air force ready to repel a Russian attack should it reoccur.
“There is a question here about how aggressive a peacekeeping force could or should be. My gut feel is, you want it to be relatively passive and to be able to extract itself or stay clear of a direct confrontation from Russia.”
Typhoons protect UK and overseas bases, and while any air policing role would put pressure on the RAF, it would not be a wasted effort as Russia is already our greatest threat, Bagwell believes.
“If you’re already in place, surveying it, then that’s probably not a bad thing,” he added.
“We currently put planes in Romania or the Baltics. Now we’re just talking about potentially putting them in in Ukraine.”
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