Welsh rugby has never felt more uncertain after a 14th consecutive defeat led to the removal of head coach Warren Gatland.
Following back-to-back defeats to France and Italy in the Six Nations, another year of the Wooden Spoon seems likely.
Italy know that situation well, suffering eight last placed finishes on the trot between 2016 and 2023 – but they have seemingly put those days behind them with a second victory over Wales in two years.
Italy’s improved performance in recent years is a culmination of 10 years of growth, which Wales should look to as a framework to rebuild from the rungs of 12th in the world rankings, their lowest classification.
Across 15 years and two spells, Gatland established much-desired stability and it was widely assumed his 2022 return would continue the success he enjoyed in the 2019 Six Nations.
Instead, his exit leaves Wales looking for a replacement. While Italy’s pattern of nine head coaches in 20 years should not act as a guide, recent history shows the kind of appointments Wales should consider.
“You need someone that has got maximum energy and is a born winner,” former Italy fly-half Ian McKinley tells The i Paper.
“Losing becomes a habit and for these young players who have started their international careers losing it has become part of their mentality. You need someone who can give a shock to the system and get that winning mentality back.”
Former All Black Kieran Crowley was this particular individual for Italy, becoming head Coach in 2021 and ending their run of 36 successive defeats in 2022 – inspiring future statement wins against stronger Tier 1 Nations ever since.
Crowley had a strong foundation of talent developed under Stephen Aboud, who spent six years as Italy’s head of technical direction after 26 years with the Irish Rugby Football Union.
Aboud was responsible for the introduction and development of Italian talent such as Paolo Garbisi, captain Michele Lamaro and Jacopo Trulla.
“Crowley came in with a blank sheet and was a more relaxed coach – happy to play from the 22-metre line, creating a more expansive play,” says McKinley.
Former Argentina international Gonzalo Quesada replaced Crowley in 2022, and “he completely overhauled this previous strategy and focussed on the defensive elements, allowing Italy to ultimately find a balance.”
In the 2025 Six Nations, Italy have already proven to be defensively strong, with Sebastian Negri completing 36 successful tackles (only bettered by Ireland’s Josh van der Flier).
“For international success to happen, you need your national teams to be performing better, that’s what we saw with Benetton Rugby Treviso in 2016,” says McKinley.
Since 2016, Benetton have seen a continued rise in performance, recently reaching the Quarter Finals of the United Rugby Championship last season. This has directly affected the national team – nine of the Italian starting line-up in the most recent match against Wales were from Benetton.
Benetton and Zebre are the two main teams in Italy, which allows those sides to be more competitive because resources are not stretched. It is similar to the model used in Scotland and has inspired similar discussions in Wales over recent years.
Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets are the four regional clubs in Wales, but Scarlets director Ron Jones recently told S4C: “We are not a big enough nation now to have the commercial clout to [have four regions].
“We probably no longer have the player pipeline that can sustain four clubs. I don’t think the union is going to be able to deliver longer-term the increase in their own revenue if they are going to support the game at club level and regional level.”
However, while it may work in Italy, McKinley points out “merging the teams is a difficult thing to do, as historically these are severe rivalries”. A reduction of the established regional clubs risks disenfranchising an already diminishing fanbase further.
But it is a fine line to toe as a two or three-team system could be financially advantageous for the WRU, who announced in 2024 that they were operating in a £15m deficit.
That led to further restrictions on the salary cap and more recently the streamlining of the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) board from nine roles to an executive team of only five.
Continuing with four teams will surely worsen their financial situation if the Professional Rugby Agreement for 2025 is agreed. The agreement will increase the salary cap for clubs from £5.1m to £6.8m.
There is currently a restriction on Welsh players playing abroad, which means means talented players like Rhys Carre and Joe Hawkins who play in the Premiership for Saracens and Exeter Chiefs respectively are ineligible for national selection.
“Playing abroad allows players more game time and more exposure to different situations and then, for example, all of a sudden, you’ve essentially got two players playing at a high level rather than one,” McKinley says.
Paolo Garbisi and Martin Page-Relo have flourished while at Montpellier and Lyon respectively and as a result, have become one of the most accomplished scrum-half and fly-half combinations in the tournament.
Admittedly, the matchday squads for Wales and Italy each had 16 players who were part of national clubs. The rule aims to prevent a complete exodus of Welsh talent to rival leagues, but McKinley insists it does not help on the international stage as it only prevents the selection of some experienced players.
“Of course, you want to have the best players playing in the country, but nothing creates a buzz and support for a team like international success and so to have that sometimes players need to be developed elsewhere.”
Wales have begun transitioning to a less restrictive system, reducing the number of caps players need before they are allowed to move abroad from 60 to 25. That has allowed players such as Exeter’s Dafydd Jenkins to play internationally despite not having the required caps.
But with dwindling resources stretched across the four regional teams, the majority of the Welsh squad is now underdeveloped, as proven in their international performances.
While interim coach Matt Sherratt’s recalling of experienced players such as Gareth Anscombe – who had previously been snubbed by Gatland – for this weekend’s match against Ireland could help to improve their performance, the issues in Welsh rugby run much deeper.
The WRU has systemic issues which has built up over years. These are some of Welsh rugby’s darkest days but a rebuild can now begin post-Gatland. Italy can be an example for what lies ahead.
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