In its latest advice for how to end the UK’s contribution to global warming, the Government’s official climate change adviser is urging it to commit to an 87 per cent cut on 1990 emission levels by 2040.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has set out what it says is a deliverable and cost-effective route to the greenhouse gas emissions cuts required from 2038 to 2042 to ensure the UK meets the legally-binding goal to cut climate pollution to zero overall – known as net zero – by 2050.
Around a third of the emissions cuts in the period will have to come from action by households, mainly buying an electric car and a heat pump to replace an old gas boiler, the independent advisory committee said.
Heat pumps are highly efficient appliances that transfer and intensify heat energy from the outside air or ground into a building. They have the capacity to produce around three units of heat for every unit of electricity they use.
They use the same technology as an air conditioner and can provide cooling by moving heat from indoors to the outside.
Experts have warned that the UK’s 2030 emissions reduction target is at risk but they say this can be partly tackled with ambitious action in households.
Around 40 per cent of global emissions come from buildings, and mostly from how homes and businesses are heated.
Around 1 per cent of UK homes already have a heat pump installed but that figure will need to increase significantly, according to the climate watchdog.
Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the CCC, said: “The new Government has an opportunity to course-correct, but it will need to be done as a matter of urgency to make up for lost time.
“They are off to a good start. Action needs to extend beyond electricity, with rapid progress needed on electric cars, heat pumps and tree planting.”
In addition to tackling climate change and creating opportunities in the economy, the CCC said a major shift to heat pumps will bring down household energy costs.
Professor Forster said: “The transition to net zero can deliver investment, lower bills, and energy security.”
Energy bills for 2025 are predicted to be £1,650 for a typical semi-detached house, with a gas boiler and a petrol car.
The CCC said its modelling shows that, by mid-century, households would save around £700 a year on heating bills with a switch to electric heat pumps for home heating.
According to the CCC’s analysis on how the UK can reach net zero, energy bills would fall to £940 in 2050.
Under the CCC’s recommendations, overall costs of meeting the emissions cuts would be 0.2 per cent of GDP – cheaper than their estimates when they set out advice in 2020 for emissions cuts in the mid-2030s – and the committee estimates public spending would never exceed 2 per cent of annual expenditure.
Upfront investment, most of which would come from the private sector, would deliver net savings for the economy by 2040 compared to continuing with use fossil fuels at current levels, the committee said.
For households, the starting price for price for heat pump installation with British Gas is £7,999. The national average cost for a heat pump is £5,565, according to Octopus Energy.
Most homes are eligible for a £7,500 grant via the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, which can bring the cost of a heat pump down to around £499.
But many households require additional work to enable them to get the best out of a heat pump and this increases costs.
For households, especially those on lower incomes, support would be needed with the expenses. And the CCC said people’s current cars and boilers do not have to be replaced earlier than they would need to be naturally.
The Government will need to support the wide rollout with continued grants for heat pumps and insulation, the CCC said.
It also said that policy changes would be required to bring down the cost of electricity. The latest analysis from the Household Energy Price Index (Hepi) shows London ranks among the most expensive European cities for household electricity with electricity at 36.75 euro cents per kilowatt hour.
The CCC’s 10 recommendations also include advising the Government to remove the exemption of 20 per cent of households from the 2035 fossil-fuel boiler installation phase-out and scrap planning barriers for heat pumps.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said the Government would consider the independent advice.
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