The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas expires on Saturday without a breakthrough in negotiations for phase two.
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States met in Cairo on Thursday but failed to reach an agreement on extending the ceasefire, which came into effect on 19 January.
The agreement halted 15 months of fighting, allowed the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages and five Thais for around 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees and was meant to lead to subsequent talks to build on the truce.
Israeli officials have previously said Israel was ready to resume fighting in Gaza if all its remaining hostages are not returned.
However, it was reported on Saturday that Israel was seeking a six-week extension to the first phase of the ceasefire.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held consultations with senior ministers and defense officials on Friday evening.
The phone call was said to involve the heads of the defense establishment along with Defence Minister Israel Katz, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, and far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Hamas is opposed to the extension of phase one, with the militant group urging Israel to advance to the second phase, reaffirming its “full commitment to implementing all the terms of the agreement in all its stages and details.”
Analysts told The i Paper this allows Hamas to keep the door open for further discussions, while setting out its red-lines in future negotiations. Egyptian and Qatari mediators asked for some time over the next few days to resolve the impasse over the ceasefire.
Both Israel and Hamas have accused the other of violating the ceasefire deal.
The Gaza Government Media Office claims there have been more than 350 breaches, including airstrikes, military incursions, and restrictions on humanitarian aid.
The organisation claims dozens of Palestinians have been killed or injured since the truce began.
On Saturday, Palestinian media reports indicated that Israeli military vehicles had opened fire in southern Rafah and the eastern outskirts of Khan Younis.
Residents described sleepless nights filled with the sound of gunfire and bombardment.
However, there was not an immediate resumption of Israel’s full-scale bombardment.
Hamas has accused Israel of adding last minute demands to the negotiations, including a proposal to continue its occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor.
The militarised border zone along the Rafah crossing has become a major sticking point in any long-term truce.
On Wednesday, Hamas returned the bodies of the last four Israeli captives who were included in the first phase of the ceasefire deal. In response, Israel released more than 600 Palestinian prisoners.
The handover had been delayed after Israel accused Hamas of orchestrating “humiliating” hostage handover ceremonies during previous exchanges.
A Hamas official accused Netanyahu of deliberately stalling the process, calling the delay a “blatant violation” of the truce terms.
The next phase of negotiations had been expected to focus on a permanent ceasefire, the exchange of remaining hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
According to Israeli estimates, 59 hostages remain in Gaza, with 24 believed to be alive. However, the specifics of the agreement remain vague, with many details still to be ironed out in future talks.
The final phase of the deal envisions the return of all deceased hostages’ remains and a comprehensive reconstruction plan for Gaza, a process that it is anticipated will take years.
The third stage would also address the future governance of the enclave, which is deemed the biggest hurdle to any lasting peace deal.
Netanyahu was set to meet with his security team on Saturday from Cairo, according to local media reports.
As Netanyahu considers his next steps, pressure mounts from within his far-right coalition, as key figures threaten to collapse the government if the ceasefire progresses to a second phase.
Noam Ostfeld, principal analyst at geopolitical risk consultancy Sibylline, told The i Paper: “Israel’s domestic concern revolves around [Finance Minister] Bezalel Smotrich, who has consistently opposed any deal.
“He even threatened to bring down the government after they agreed to the first phase — and has ruled out his support for any second phase of the deal. If he withdraws his party’s support, it could bring down the government.”
Adding to Netanyahu’s challenges, ultra-Orthodox parties that prop up his government are also using this moment to push their own agenda, demanding an exemption from military conscription — a move that could further fracture the coalition.
At the same time, if a deal is not reached, Ostfeld says liberal factions in Israeli society, and those rallying for the release of hostages, could take to the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem – piling more pressure on Netenayhu’s fragile premiership.
As ceasefire talks stall, the United States continues to supply military aid to Israel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has approved an emergency sale of $2bn worth of bomb bodies and warheads, alongside additional arms packages totaling nearly $1bn.
The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency justified the move as essential for Israel’s “self-defense capability”.
Ostfeld noted a recent shift in the US’s position, stating: “Before, there was speculation that Trump favoured extending the ceasefire, while Netanyahu opposed it.
“However, Trump’s recent rhetoric suggests he is now offering more flexibility to Netanyahu, signaling that the decision ultimately regarding a ceasefire rests with him.”
Complicating the situation, Trump has made inflammatory remarks suggesting that Washington should assume control of Gaza and “clean it” of Palestinians, eliciting international condemnation and raising concerns about ethnic cleansing.
Trump also faced criticism after sharing an AI-generated video of Gaza transformed into an opulent tourist resort.
Meanwhile as Muslims worldwide celebrate the holy month of Ramadan, frictions are expected to escalate in the West Bank, with tensions expected over whether Israel imposes entry restrictions on Al-Aqsa Mosque, a historically contentious measure that has previously triggered widespread unrest.
Already, Israel has displaced approximately 40,000 Palestinians in four camps in the north of the occupied West Bank: Tulkarm, Nur Shams, Jenin and Far’a.
Recent attacks inside Israel, including the explosion of three buses in central regions, have heightened domestic security concerns.
As the ceasefire deadline loomed, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the coming days would be “critical” for the future of the truce.
“The parties must spare no effort to avoid a breakdown of this deal,” he urged, calling on all sides to uphold their commitments.
Humanitarian organisations stress the urgent need for sustained aid access. The World Food Programme reported that under the current truce, it has managed to reach one million people in Gaza.
However, with negotiations deadlocked and violence escalating, the prospects for a lasting ceasefire remain uncertain.
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