Nigel Farage is no stranger to controversy when it comes to comments he has made about Russia and Ukraine.
As far back as 2014, he caught flak for saying that Vladimir Putin was the world leader he admired most “as an operator, but not as a human being”.
While Farage and his parties may have been able to ride out the controversies in the past, the Reform UK leader’s close friendship with Donald Trump and enthusiastic backing of the US President’s decision to start talks with Putin over Ukraine means his opponents once again sense an opportunity to highlight a side of the insurgent party they think could turn off many British voters.
So far, Reform UK have tried to tread a careful line. For example, when Trump last week called the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator without elections”, Farage said that Zelensky was “not a dictator” – but added that Ukraine should “have a timeline for elections”.
The comment generated criticism, with the Conservative shadow Defence Secretary, James Cartlidge, labelling it “incredibly trite”. “Why does Farage think Ukraine should have a ‘timetable’ for elections? They’re not going through local government reform – they’re in an existential war and don’t know when it will end,” he said.
It has led some people to think that Reform’s buoyant polling figures – the party is currently leading the Conservatives and Labour nationally – could bely potential electoral weaknesses.
Commentators and rival parties contend that Reform’s support for Trump, its position on Ukraine and stance on other topics such as net zero – deputy leader Richard Tice said last week that man-made climate change was “garbage” – could all cause it problems.
Farage has a genuine friendship with Trump. He appeared with him on the stump during the Republican’s 2016 presidential election campaign and was the first UK politician to meet him after he was elected – being photographed with him in Trump Tower’s famous golden elevator.
The relationship is sufficiently close that Trump took time to give him a shout out during his speech on Saturday at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC, which Farage had flown out to attend.
Of Farage, Trump said: “I’ve been his friend for a long time.” Indulging in a spot of punditry, he said Reform did “really well” in the general election and “they say he’s going to do even better this time”. He added: “Thank you Nigel, what a great guy.”
For his own part, Farage has lavished praise on Trump, with the Reform leader using his CPAC speech to call the President “the bravest man I know”.
However, Reform’s rivals think that the party’s embrace of Trump is a liability.
A Labour MP in a seat where Reform came second at the election told The i Paper: “In general, British people look at Donald Trump and [his ally] Elon Musk and just go ‘that’s completely batshit’.
“Because Trump is leaning into that relationship – he spoke about Farage in his [CPAC] speech – and Farage has leant into it a lot… every batshit thing that the administration does in the States, we can say ‘well this is what these people want to do in Britain and it’s bonkers’.”
Some Tories agree. One Shadow Cabinet member said: “What I think we’ve done is be quite clever, pointing out the good things that Trump has done – I don’t think the ceasefire in Gaza would have happened without him whispering in [Israeli prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s ear.
“But at some point the British people will say ‘hold on, he’s mad’, and at that point hugging him too close would look like a mistake.”
It is certainly true that the President is a deeply unpopular figure in Britain – according to a YouGov poll last week, 73 per cent of Britons have an unfavourable view of Trump, compared to 22 per cent who have a favourable view. (Reform voters are a major outlier, with a YouGov poll on 20 January, the day of Trump’s inauguration, showing that 58 per cent were “happy” with him becoming president again, compared to just 19 per cent of the UK general public).
Reform plays down the idea that the closeness to Trump is a political problem. A party source said that having a strong relationship with the US President was beneficial to the UK and its national security.
But last week showed how Farage’s friendship with Trump could get entangled in the heated politics of what to do about the war in Ukraine.
Trump’s “dictator” insult against Zelensky on Wednesday and his unfounded claim that Ukraine had “started” the war with Russia provoked outrage around the world.
In the UK, politicians across the party spectrum came quickly out of the blocks to make clear that they disagreed with Trump on Zelensky, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
However, for almost a day Reform’s MPs said nothing on the issue. Even some Reform supporters, such as the commentator Tim Montgomerie, said that “Reform’s silence on Trump and Ukraine must end and end urgently”.
When Farage broke the silence on Thursday he said he had been delayed in responding because he had “been on an aeroplane” on his way to CPAC. Farage said that Zelensky was not a dictator and there was “no doubt” that “Russia is to blame for the invasion”.
The delay was still seized upon by critics. Mike Tapp, the Labour MP for Dover and Deal – where Reform came second at the election – told The i Paper: “If you’ve got to sit, wait, observe, check out public opinion before you make a statement then you’re clearly not in-step with British values”.
In political terms, it is unsurprising that Reform and the other parties distanced themselves from Trump’s words on Zelensky and his decision to blame Ukraine for the war. Polling by YouGov last week shows that Britons have a positive view of Zelensky (65 per cent favourable, against 16 per cent unfavourable), and overwhelmingly blame Russia for the conflict (77 per cent say that Russia is “entirely” or “mostly responsible”, with just 3 per cent thinking Ukraine is entirely or mostly responsible).
However, there is some evidence that other areas of Reform’s stance on Ukraine may be out of kilter with broader UK public opinion.
For example, Farage’s decision to call for a timeline for elections in Ukraine on the face of it does not align with how important the British public view it a priority, with polling by YouGov last week showing that 74 per cent of Britons think it is reasonable for a country to postpone elections while it is fighting a war within its own borders.
Reform has also thrown its full weight behind Trump’s decision to start talks with Putin.
In Washington, Farage said: “I applaud President Trump for launching peace negotiations. Our strategy appears to be backing up Ukraine for three years into an endless war that they are going to lose at massive cost. I absolutely applaud that he is talking to both sides… the big picture is that Trump is doing a great job.”
And in a social media post last week Tice said that Trump was “elected on a mandate to deliver peace” and “everything must be on the table”.
But polling carried out last week suggests that the UK public take a more hawkish view.
Asked what their preference is for the approach the West should take to the war, 44 per cent of Britons told YouGov they favour supporting “Ukraine in its efforts against Russia until such a time that Russia withdraws from the country, even if this means the war and its effects last longer”. This compared to 31 per cent who said they favour “a negotiated peace to end the fighting, even if this means Russia still has control over some parts of Ukraine”.
Reform’s backing for talks with Putin has caused the party’s MPs some public discomfiture.
In an interview which went viral earlier this month, TalkTV’s Julia Hartley-Brewer challenged Tice: “Which part of Britain would you give away if we were invaded and you wanted to negotiate peace?”
Tice replied: “None at all, none at all.”
Hartley-Brewer shot back: “So we wouldn’t give away any of Britain, but it’s okay to give a bit of Ukraine?”
“It’s not us giving it away, it’s Ukraine,” Tice replied.
Hartley-Brewer replied: “Ukraine doesn’t want to give it away.”
Reform’s political opponents have sensed an opportunity, with the Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey accusing Farage of being a Trump “bootlicker” and a “plastic patriot”.
Tapp, a former solider who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, said: “They’re as bad as Jeremy Corbyn and his lot. It’s quite clear that they don’t stand up for British values.”
Asked by GQ in 2014 which current world leader he most admired, Nigel Farage said: “As an operator, but not as a human being, I would say Putin.”
“The way he played the whole Syria thing. Brilliant. Not that I approve of him politically. How many journalists in jail now?”
Asked about the comment again in 2024, Farage said: “I said I disliked him as a person, but I admired him as a political operator because he’s managed to take control of running Russia.”
In a debate with Nick Clegg in 2014, Farage accused the EU of pursuing “effectively an imperialist, expansionist” policy in Ukraine. “I think the EU frankly does have blood on its hands in the Ukraine,” he said.
On the day that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Farage posted on Twitter: “Putin has gone much further than I thought he would.”
The tweet went on: “A consequence of EU and Nato expansion, which came to a head in 2014. It made no sense to poke the Russian bear with a stick.”
In an interview with the BBC’s Nick Robinson in June 2024, he said: “It was obvious to me that the ever eastward expansion of Nato and the EU was giving this man [Putin] a reason to his Russian people, to say ‘they’re coming for us again’, and to go to war.”
He added: “We’ve provoked this war, of course it’s [Putin’s] fault, he’s used what we’ve done as an excuse.”
When Robinson interjected: “We provoked the invasion of Ukraine?”, Farage said: “Yes.”
In a Daily Telegraph column to “set the record straight” after the interview, Farage said: “[The] invasion of Ukraine was immoral, outrageous and indefensible. As a champion of national sovereignty, I believe that Putin was entirely wrong to invade the sovereign nation of Ukraine.
“Nobody can fairly accuse me of being an appeaser. I have never sought to justify Putin’s invasion in any way and I’m not now.
“But that doesn’t change the fact that I saw it coming a decade ago, warned that it was coming and am one of the few political figures who has been consistently right and honest about Russia’s Ukraine war.
“As I have made clear on multiple occasions since then, if you poke the Russian bear with a stick, don’t be surprised if he responds. And if you have neither the means nor the political will to face him down, poking a bear is obviously not good foreign policy.”
In an interview with Sky News earlier this month, Richard Tice was asked: “Do you believe in man-made climate change?”
He replied: “Look, climate change is real, has gone on for millions of years, always will, the arrogant naivety of people who think that you can stop the power of the sun, stop the power of volcanoes.”
He went on: “There is no evidence that man-made CO2 is going to change climate change, given that it’s gone on for millions of years, it will go on for millions of years.”
When asked whether he agreed with the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that human activities are the main cause of climate change, he said: “No, that’s absolute garbage, and I’ve just proven it because the climate changed for millions of years before man-made CO2. They are lying to people.”
The interviewer put to him that “the overwhelming scientific community, say that the rate of climate change since the industrial revolution has been vastly exacerbated by human activity. Do you not agree with that?”
Tice replied: “No I don’t… there are loads of scientists who are terrified to speak because they won’t get any research funding if they tell it as it is.”
When asked about Nasa saying that human activities are the primary cause of global warming and climate change, he said: “The American people when they’ve been given a vote, they’ve realised that people like Nasa, part of the establishment, they’re wrong and actually President Trump and we are correct.”
But pollsters are split on how much of a problem it all really represents for Reform. Anthony Wells, YouGov’s head of European political and social research, told The i Paper: “I don’t think closeness to Trump is particularly damaging them.
“As a starting point foreign affairs aren’t hugely salient to how people behave anyway – they do play second fiddle to the economy, health, immigration and so on.”
Wells went on: “[Farage] tends to be a savvy player. He’s wise enough to know that while his base are quite happy for him to be close to Donald Trump, he does need to distance himself from Trump’s views on Ukraine.
“There is a slight risk to him but Farage seems to be aware of it and doing what’s necessary to avoid the pitfall.”
However, Luke Tryl, the director of the More in Common think-tank, thinks it might pose a more serious challenge.
He told The i Paper: “People are really scared about the geopolitical situation and in particular, what Trump’s sort of instability means for us.
“I think there’s a danger of Farage – who already has to pass a credibility test – being seen to represent the same kind of instability.”
If Trump harms Britain – for example by slapping tariffs on UK goods – then voters will question why Farage is friends with “someone who’s not an ally”, Tryl said. And if Trump’s foreign policy does lead to chaos, it might make Britons more cautious when casting their vote. “It will just naturally make people more small ‘c’ conservative,” he said. “In a dangerous world, you’re less willing to take a gamble on a new party that’s never been in government, like Reform.”
According to Tryl, Reform need to switch from a “build momentum” phase to a “build credibility” to seriously challenge for government, but he thinks some of the party’s recent public statements are counterproductive.
For example, last week Tice told Sky News that “there’s no evidence that man-made CO2 is going to change climate change”, claiming that the scientific consensus on human-influenced global warming was “absolute garbage”.
Reform held a press conference earlier this month to launch a series of policies to “scrap net zero”, including a “windfall tax on renewable generated power”, a “solar farm tax on farmers taking the renewable subsidy”, a “ban on battery energy storage systems” and laws to force the National Grid to put cables underground.
The policies have received a rocky reception. Analysts have said replacing pylons with underground cables would drive up energy costs despite a promise by Reform to “lower energy bills for working people” and that banning batteries would undermine energy security. Others have questioned why it would not be better to simply withdraw subsidies rather than tax them.
A Reform source told The i Paper that the press conference was about the direction of travel on net zero and not policies for the next manifesto. They said people wanted lower energy bills rather than an “ideological driven net zero”, which the party remains committed to scrapping.
But according to Tryl, Reform’s net zero platform is still out of step with the public’s views, including those of Reform voters.
“Not only are they not growing the tent, but by taking a stance which is not just sceptical about net zero targets, but sceptical about the renewable industry, they’ve put themselves on the wrong side of public opinion,” he said.
According to polling by More in Common on climate change this month, revealed exclusively to The i Paper, Reform UK is out of touch with the British public – including many of its own supporters.
While Reform said earlier this month that they were “putting the renewables industry on notice” and would impose a windfall tax on it, Britons are six times more likely to support renewable investment (64 per cent) than oppose it (10 per cent). These views are also held by Reform voters, among whom support for renewables outweighs opposition by two to one.
Reform has said that its plans will “lower energy bills for working people”. However, the party’s voters are among the most sceptical about a windfall tax on renewables: 42 per cent of those who voted Reform in 2024 think that taxing renewables would increase bills – seven points higher than average. Only 16 per cent thought such a policy would reduce bills.
While Reform have pledged to scrap net zero, Britons are twice as likely to support than oppose the target – 40 per cent of the public think the target to reach it by 2050 is a “good policy”, with 21 per cent saying it is a “bad policy”.
Overall, Reform is not trusted on the climate. Only a quarter of Britons (24 per cent) say they trust Reform “a great deal” or “quite a bit” on climate change, lower than any other issue More in Common tested (including immigration, crime, energy policy, the economy, the NHS and reducing bills). More than a third (36 per cent) say they do not trust the party at all.
Luke Tryl, the director of More in Common, told The i Paper that Reform should be wary of being too influenced by climate sceptic supporters who are highly active online. “There is a real danger for Reform in becoming too online and actually, oddly enough, making the mistakes that the progressive left make, that Twitter is Britain,” he said.
Comments
Leave a Comment