The UK has a binding commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050, and this drive to cut greenhouse gas emissions could have major cost implications for consumers.
The transition involves phasing out fossil fuels, increasing the use of renewable energy, and encouraging cleaner modes of transport, such as electric vehicles (EVs).
A key player in this effort is the Climate Change Committee (CCC), an independent advisory body that provides guidance on how the UK can meet its climate targets.
In its latest update, the CCC has suggested that four in five cars will need to be electric within the next 15 years if the UK wants to meet its climate goals.
By that point, if the CCC’s recommendations to the Government are accepted, it is expected that the UK’s net emissions will be 13 per cent of the levels they were in 1990.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said the Government would consider the advice and respond in due course.
“We owe it to current generations to seize the opportunities for energy security and lower bills, and we owe it to future generations to tackle the existential climate crisis,” he said.
Here’s what the UK’s net zero push could mean for your driving costs.
In its latest report, the CCC claimed that households could see their annual driving costs fall by £550 between 2025 and 2050 due to the uptake of EVs. Currently, the average household spends around £790 a year on driving, but this is expected to drop to £220 by 2050.
The CCC says this fall in cost will be because “electric cars and vans are already generally cheaper to run and maintain and will soon be cheaper to buy than their fossil fuel-based alternatives”.
The report does acknowledge that EVs often come with a higher upfront price tag than internal combustion engine vehicles. However, it projects that between 2026 and 2028, the price of EVs will drop dramatically until they are comparable with petrol and diesel cars, new sales of which will be banned from 2030.
Currently, the average price of a new electric car is £46,000, according to NimbleFins, a research and data-driven personal finance website. The cheapest option for a new EV on the UK market is the Dacia Spring at £14,995, which has a driving range of 100 miles.
In comparison, the average cost of a new internal combustion engine car ranges from £18,500 to £28,500 for small and medium cars, with a Vauxhall Corsa being one of the cheapest options at £18,505. There is, however, a significantly larger second-hand market for petrol and diesel cars than there is for EVs.
To help boost the availability of EVs, the Government has also introduced the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, which requires a certain percentage of new car sales to be zero-emission vehicles, but the CCC’s pathway envisions EV sales growing faster than the minimum levels set by this mandate.
The CCC report also acknowledges that while many households will benefit from the transition to EVs, government policy support will be crucial to ensure that low-income households are not disadvantaged. It argues that upfront costs and access to charging infrastructure can be barriers for these consumers.
“Consumers on lower incomes or with no access to off-street parking are likely to be the last to switch to EVs. Continuing to drive an [internal combustion engine] vehicle towards the end of the transition will be more expensive and could also be increasingly challenging as petrol stations become less prevalent,” the CCC warned.
The CCC does warn that, as EVs become more prevalent and driving costs decrease, there is a possibility of increased car usage, known as the “rebound effect”. This could lead to higher electricity demand and potential congestion.
“The lower cost of motoring for electric cars is assumed to lead to an increase in car-kilometres in our analysis, which more than offsets the overall reduction due to modal shift. It will be important to monitor this rebound effect and consider whether policies to control any increases in driving brought about by EVs are needed,” the CCC advises.
Another challenge in switching to EVs is ensuring there is a strong second-hand market for them, as many consumers cannot afford to buy new cars. To mitigate this, the report suggested the Government should “provide clear plans for the second-hand market, including battery health checks and expanded access to charging infrastructure”.
The report also suggested that promoting alternatives to driving would be crucial to both mitigating the “rebound effect” and ensuring the UK can hit its net zero goals.
“Improvements to make buses and active travel more attractive, affordable, and accessible allow seven per cent of car demand to be switched to public transport and active travel by 2035,” the report noted.
To achieve the UK’s net zero goals, the CCC claims that the UK must slash its greenhouse gas emissions by 87 per cent from 1990.
To hit this, it has warned that urgent action is needed to reduce emissions both in people’s homes and in sectors such as transport and agriculture. energy, transport, agriculture, and home heating to meet these ambitious targets.
“This would be an ambitious target, reflecting the importance of the task. But it is deliverable, provided action is taken rapidly,” the report stated.
One key recommendation is a rapid shift away from fossil fuels towards clean energy. The CCC says the UK must invest heavily in wind and solar power while upgrading the electricity grid to handle more renewable energy. It also calls for better home insulation and energy efficiency measures to cut household energy use and lower bills.
The report also highlights the need for changes in agriculture, particularly reducing meat consumption. It suggests the UK should cut meat intake by 25 per cent to 35 per cent by 2050 to help lower methane emissions from meat production.
This could mean eating around 260 grams less meat per week – which The Guardian estimates is roughly two fewer kebabs.
The way homes are heated needs to change, too. The CCC recommends banning the sale of new gas boilers within the next decade and switching to low-carbon alternatives like heat pumps.
This could have benefits for consumers. For 2025, energy bills are predicted to be £1,650 for a typical semi-detached house with a gas boiler and a petrol car. According to the CCC’s analysis of how the UK can reach net zero, this would fall to £940 in 2050.
However, before these lower energy bills can be achieved, the report cautioned that around half of all UK homes will need to use heat pumps by 2040.
The report additionally stresses that cutting emissions isn’t just about government policies – it also requires big changes in how people live.
The CCC estimates that about one-third of the emissions reductions needed by 2040 will come from individual choices, such as switching to greener technology and consuming less high-carbon goods.
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