You have to say it doesn’t look good. After Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Manchester City, a victory so nonchalant and understated it felt almost disrespectful, like holding a state funeral at a garden centre, Arsenal are 11 points from the Premier League summit.
Yes, they have a game in hand, but an eight-point gap with 33 other points available on either side – 11 matches apiece – is still significant.
Post-match, Roy Keane was disconcertingly charitable, saying “there’s no doubt” Liverpool will win the title.
“You look through the spine of the team, very strong and there is a lot of pace too,” he said. “Mohamed Salah is amazing.
“There is momentum and everyone else is slipping up. It’s all over.”
Having previously held his tongue, Jamie Carragher said much the same: “Liverpool are going to win the title.
“Arsenal are in a situation where they’ve got no attackers, they’ve got no strikers, they’re going to drop more points.”
For Mikel Arteta’s side, this certainly captures the prevailing feeling. A 1-0 home defeat to West Ham shattered any illusion that life without Kai Havertz will be easy, triggering a six-point swing which opens a gap into a chasm.
“I’m really, really annoyed with the things that are in our hands – which is the performance and the result,” Arteta said.
“[We were] nowhere near the levels that we have to hit to have the opportunity to win a Premier league. I’m very much responsible for that, so I’m very, very angry.”
Anger is all well and good, but is it too late? There’s plenty of reasons to think so. The all-knowing, and often wrong, Opta supercomputer now gives Liverpool a 95.8 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, with Arsenal at 4.2.
Of the current Premier League top seven, Arsenal still have to play five – Newcastle, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool, travelling to the City Ground, Anfield, Goodison Park and Old Trafford.
Meanwhile, Liverpool only have three top-seven opponents – Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal, with seven of their remaining 11 matches at home.
Of course, Arsenal’s visit to Anfield could be crucial, but there is a fair risk it comes too late, scheduled for 10 May. Only three league games will remain and Liverpool might have already won the title.
But if Arne Slot’s side slip up between now and then, an Arsenal victory would mean they only need two more wins than Liverpool over the rest of the season, outside of that game.
This is unlikely, but not unfathomable. For one, Liverpool’s recent performances have shown minor signs of friability, with only two wins from their last five.
Despite all the criticism of Arsenal’s attack, particularly sans Havertz, they have managed two more shots on target than Liverpool over the past three games. The Gunners’ defence also remains marginally better – 23 goals conceded against 26 over the league season. There are seeds of positivity if you really look for them.
But the stars actually aligning feels just a tad too far-fetched, especially given Arsenal’s injury issues. Liverpool have been fortunate with their absences – only Conor Bradley and Joe Gomez are currently unavailable – especially given how little they have rotated key players.
With Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Takehiro Tomiyasu out until 2025-26 and Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka unavailable until March at least, goalscoring concerns could become a long-term problem at the Emirates.
Even if Arteta finds a workable solution up front, this is unlikely to be a quick or easy process. There just isn’t the time he or Arsenal need to stop what is now almost inevitable.
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