Plans for peace in Ukraine were thrown into serious doubt following a shouting match in the Oval Office between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday.
Sir Keir Starmer, the UK Prime Minister, showed his support for the Ukrainian President on Saturday and embraced him as he arrived at No 10.
European leaders, led by Starmer and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, are now coming up with a peace plan to present to Trump in an attempt to repair the situation.
Here, The i Paper talks to experts to look at the scenarios for how the Ukraine war could actually end.
Starmer said on Sunday that the UK will work with France “and possibly one or two others” on a peace plan for Ukraine that will then be discussed with the US.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of UK and Nato CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear) forces, said the UK and France have to do the “heavy lifting” in terms of getting a peace deal over the line.
He said: “We are learning that you can’t really take the Trump, Vance and Musk team at face value.
“They have these outbursts and then change their mind.”
Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said Trump’s relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin is still going to be key to negotiating with Russia, regardless of what France and the UK can come up with.
Galeotti, who is also director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence, said Putin sees European leaders as Ukrainian allies arming the country rather than a neutral mediator – as Trump is presenting himself – who can broker a deal that would be acceptable to both sides.
While Trump has previously said that Ukraine cannot expect to get back all territories it has lost to Russia, Britain and France have yet to acknowledge this “depressing but unavoidable reality”, he added.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Zelensky should “apologise” to Trump, but the Ukrainian President has so far not done so.
Lord Mandelson, the UK ambassador in Washington, told ABC News on Sunday that Zelensky should make up with the US President and give “unequivocal backing to the initiative… Trump is taking” to broker a peace deal with Russia.
He called on the Ukrainian President to sign the minerals deal – a commercial and economic agreement that would give the US access to the country’s deposits of rare earth minerals – and “get back on the same page” as Trump.
Mandelson appeared to suggest that the minerals deal could act as a US security guarantee to any ceasefire, saying: “It will mean that US commercial interests, US individual citizens will be on the ground there, and that will be an even greater added incentive for the US to protect Ukraine in future and make sure that war does not ensue again.”
He also suggested that Ukraine should commit to a ceasefire before Russia.
Zelensky’s frustrations stem from wanting the US to “stand more firmly” on Ukraine’s side.
Friday’s Oval Office meeting soured after the US Vice-President JD Vance – who was sitting in the room – told Zelensky that the war had to be ended through diplomacy.
Zelensky responded by asking “what kind of diplomacy?”, referencing Russia’s breach of a previous ceasefire deal in 2019, agreed three years before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The vice-president then accused Zelensky of being disrespectful and “litigating” the situation in front of the media, with Trump agreeing.
If a reconciliation did occur, the minerals deal that Zelensky and Trump were about to sign could be back on the table.
“If the Americans are involved, that would be a major barrier to Putin doing anything [to break the ceasefire],” said de Bretton-Gordon.
But Galleotti doubts it would be the effective deterrent Trump claims it would be.
“Trump can sign a minerals deal, but this all depends on US companies then being willing to invest what will have to be substantial sums of money to actually exploit these rare earths and other minerals,” he said.
“This doesn’t happen overnight, if it happens at all. Are they really going to be wanting to get involved in what is still a live war zone?”
Although it would be unlikely to safeguard Ukraine in the immediate aftermath of a ceasefire, it could be more effective long-term as the first stage in a “deeper economic partnership” between Ukraine and the US, Galeotti said.
Russia would be wary of continuing to attack Ukraine in a way that damages American economic interests, however it could still make targeted attacks that avoid this, he added.
Trump has so far refused to say whether the US would provide security guarantees to Ukraine – a key Zelensky demand – in the event of a ceasefire. He has hinted the the presence of US civilians working on the minerals deal in Ukraine could be enough to deter Putin.
In a press conference after a crucial defence summit with Zelensky and world leaders on Sunday, Starmer set out plans for the UK to lead a “coalition of the willing” to defend peace in Ukraine.
Starmer added that the UK was willing to put “boots on the ground and planes in the air” as part of a coalition peacekeeping force to defend Ukraine from the threat of Russia.
The UK, France and some Nordic countries had already indicated they are willing to provide troops on the ground in Ukraine.
They and other European countries could band together to patrol Ukraine’s skies, said de Bretton-Gordon.
He said Germany has had a “change in tone” and may come forward to help, and while Italy and Greece have not been forthcoming so far, they do have “considerable air power”.
“There is enough horsepower in Europe to do this, but it will stretch,” he said. “America has the golden ticket, as it were – you put that golden ticket down and there’s no chance that the Russians would try and transgress [a ceasefire]. I think European Nato countries can do it if required on their own.”
Trump has indicated he wants to stop funding Ukraine in its war with Russia.
De Bretton-Gordon believes Europe could step up and fill the gap to prevent Ukraine from total defeat, but Galeotti is sceptical.
“There’s not a huge enthusiasm to dramatically increase the amount of resources that they’re putting into this,” Galeotti said of European leaders. “But let’s say they do. It still is going to take time. You cannot, in effect, raise armies as if you’re just buying something off Amazon Prime.”
It is estimated that if the US discontinued its support, Ukraine would have another six months before supplies dwindled, giving Putin an opportunity to keep seizing territory.
Trump’s actions “absolutely” risk World War Three, said de Bretton-Gordon.
“The way that Trump seems to be appeasing Putin at the moment, I think it’s much more likely to blow up into a wider conflict,” he said. “Him suggesting that Zelensky was trying to do that is, quite frankly, ridiculous. He seems to forget that Putin invaded in the first place.”
But Galeotti does not believe a conflict with advanced Western nations, who are part of Nato, “features anywhere” on Putin’s “to-do list”. Putin is already struggling to defeat Ukraine, so attacking a country like Poland, which is arming itself at a rapid rate, would be even more difficult for him.
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